The NASCAR Cup Series continues on Sunday with the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 from Phoenix Raceway. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET and defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson is the 9-2 favorite in the latest 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Our proven projection model has simulated the NASCAR Phoenix race 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson's wins during a historic season and has also nailed all seven of its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR at Phoenix 2022 and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's a 25-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 6-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10! There are far better values in this open 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 starting grid.

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who they are before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage500? And which long shots are MUST-BACKS? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins last season!