2022 NFL Draft: Rashod Bateman, two rookie WRs among Fantasy Football winners, while losers include Cardinals duo
Which players saw their Fantasy value impacted the most by the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft?
loading...
loading...
Day 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft was a wild one! We saw four wide receivers selected inside the top 12, and six wideouts went in the first round in all. That wasn't the only Fantasy-relevant change to occur at the WR position, as two blockbuster trades involving number one receivers went down on Thursday night. 24-year-old star wideout A.J. Brown was shipped to the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Arizona Cardinals traded away their first-round selection to acquire burner Marquise Brown -- also 24 years old -- and a third-round pick from the Baltimore Ravens.
All of this change at the WR position is sure to cause ripples across the Fantasy landscape. The following players are whose Fantasy value I believe to have been impacted the most after Day 1. We'll also take a look at overall winners and losers following the conclusion of the draft, so be sure to check back to SportsLine for that.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
Is Burks more Laviska Shenault or A.J. Brown? I posed that question in Burks' advanced analytical profile, and now the Titans have given us an opportunity to see just how closely Burks can mirror the aforementioned and recently traded star wideout. Only Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams were targeted at a higher per route rate than A.J. Brown in 2021, so a massive target void is left behind with Tennessee's former top target now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Burks is often compared to Shenault -- both players are big-bodied receivers who were scripted touches by their teams as weapons out of the backfield and slot. From what I can tell, that's where the similarities stop. Burks was far more efficient on downfield targets, vs. press coverage, and from the perimeter than Shenault. His overall body of work is more impressive, and his peak efficiency outclasses anything we saw from Shenault.
If his success in limited opportunities as a perimeter receiver and downfield route runner translates at the NFL level, it will be no surprise for Burks to end up as the most productive receiver from the 2022 class. He has the potential to join A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Cooper Kupp as one of the NFL's most unique playmakers -- capable of turning opportunities from the slot or perimeter into big plays with his exceptional yardage after the catch creation. You shouldn't draft him with such lofty expectations -- his profile includes plenty of red flags -- but that type of upside is within his range of outcomes. And with the way Day 1 of the NFL Draft shook out, Burks will have every opportunity to reach the top of his range of outcomes.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
The rookie season data was not encouraging for Rashod Bateman, and it came on a 409-route sample size that is plenty large to draw speculation from.
Bateman's collegiate data was extremely encouraging, though -- enough so to excuse a disappointing rookie season in which injury caused him to get off on the wrong foot. His data profile indicates that Bateman has what it takes to succeed as an NFL-level WR1. Barring Baltimore addressing the WR position on Day 2, it appears as if Bateman will be given the opportunity to fill that type of a role for the Ravens in 2022.
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Pre-draft, I wrote this about London's Fantasy outlook: "If London ends up in a situation where he's likely to be schemed touches -- Atlanta or Green Bay, for example -- I'd be less concerned about his USC route tree data. However, if he lands in a more neutral situation -- let's say with the Jets, Texans, or Patriots -- London's resume would present enough risk to likely bump him down to the bottom end of what I believe is a five-player Tier 1 at the WR position."
Beautiful. The eighth pick was as early as London could have reasonably been expected to be selected, and barring a Green Bay trade-up, Atlanta was the best possible landing spot for him.
Coming off the second-highest single-season target per route run rate recorded over the past five seasons, London enters an Atlanta offense where he will have the opportunity to reach the top of his range of outcomes as a target hog. It's easy to get excited about his outlook, and I wouldn't blame anyone for moving him to the WR1 spot in the 2022 rookie class.
He is far from a sure thing, though. The overall passing volume in Atlanta is likely to be low with Marcus Mariota at the helm. And while London's statistical profile brings plenty to like, there are red flags as well.
London is definitely among the winners from Day 1, though. This landing spot should secure his spot as a top-three selection in rookie drafts.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert each have extremely encouraging early-career data profiles, but there's no way around it -- both became clear Fantasy losers after Philadelphia traded for A.J. Brown.
The early-career profiles are exciting for Smith and Goedert, but Brown's is on another level entirely. Justin Jefferson is the only receiver with multiple years of data that has a profile comparable to Brown's. Brown is one of just four receivers to ever average 2.5 yards per route run in each of his first three seasons. He has made drastic improvements to his ability to command targets in each of his three seasons -- increasing his target per route run rate by 22 percent from Year 1 to Year 2 and then again by 26 percent from Year 2 to Year 3.
On a Philadelphia offense that isn't expected to be in the top half in passing volume, it is hard to envision there being enough targets or air yards available for Brown, Smith, and Goedert to continue their upward trajectory.
Of the three, Smith's value is who I project to take the biggest hit. His route tree as a rookie overlaps a lot with what we've seen from Brown to this point, and Brown is the player with a track record of demanding targets at a high rate on those routes. It seems most likely that Smith's target share is going to drop -- as the WR30 in Fantasy in 2021, there wasn't much room to drop before Smith fell out of Fantasy relevancy.
Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Brown leaves a Baltimore offense with extremely concentrated target volume to join a crowded Arizona offense that spreads the wealth.
No Cardinal had a target share above 21 percent in 2021. The man Brown will replace in Arizona's offense -- Christian Kirk -- saw an 18 percent target share and 28 percent air yardage share. Brown accounted for 25 percent of Baltimore's targets and 32 percent of the air yards in 2021.
Brown looked like a bargain at his early offseason average draft position, but he's tough to justify drafting as a top-36 Fantasy WR at this point.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Marquise Brown had the NFL's 13th-highest target share in 2021. He clearly projects for a larger piece of the pie than Christian Kirk did.
DeAndre Hopkins will be 30 years old and coming off of the fourth-straight season in which his target per route run rate has dropped as he contends with Brown, Zach Ertz, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore for Kyler Murray's attention. His days as a top-20 Fantasy WR are almost assuredly behind him.
It's hard to tell how much Hopkins' 2021 data was influenced by injury. Even with that caveat, it's hard to believe how poor his data profile from last season is. Hopkins had nearly identical per route rates to Julio Jones, who everyone has written off as toast at this point in his career. Hopkins was targeted on 19.7 of his routes and averaged 1.76 yards per route run. Jones' yard per route run rate was identical, and he drew a target on 19.5 percent of his routes.
I would expect Hopkins' rates to bounce back in 2022, but likely not to the extent that most would have expected. There's still plenty of touchdown upside available to him in Arizona's offense, but the floor is low enough for Hopkins to fall outside of the top-36 Fantasy receivers if he reaches the bottom range of his outcomes.