2022 NFC South NFL futures odds: Sam Darnold, supposedly tanking Carolina Panthers now control own destiny in division

There have been some truly horrific NFL divisions over the years, with the most recent example in 2020 when Washington won the NFC East with a 7-9 mark. It was the third time in league history a team won a division with a losing record. The NFC South might join that list in 2022 as the 5-8 Carolina Panthers now control their own destiny in the divisional race despite having fired their coach and traded two of their best offensive players this season. The Panthers are +430 second favorites at Caesars Sportsbook behind first-place Tampa Bay (-325), which leads by a game.

Carolina is the only team in the division on a winning streak – the Panthers beat Denver 23-10 in Week 12 then came off their bye Sunday and were 30-24 upset winners in Seattle. With the win, the Panthers jumped from a 10% chance to 19% to make the playoffs per the New York Times. DraftKings prices the Panthers +350 to make it (22.2%) and -450 to miss.

The common denominator in those two victories? Sam Darnold under center. He hasn't been dominant in those two wins, completing a combined 25 of 43 for 284 yards and two touchdowns but also hasn't turned it over. The running game has been excellent, led by castoff D'onta Foreman (he's going to win many players their Fantasy leagues as a midseason pickup). 

This is a team that appeared to be in tank mode when it fired coach Matt Rhule after a 1-4 start, replaced him on an interim basis with Steve Wilks and a week later traded star running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers. Then last week, Baker Mayfield was released.

Atlanta (5-8) and New Orleans (4-9) were off in Week 14. The Bucs (6-7) were destroyed in San Francisco by a Mr. Irrelevant quarterback, Brock Purdy, making his first NFL start.

Thus, should Carolina win Sunday vs. Pittsburgh (5-8), Week 16 vs. Detroit (6-7), Week 17 at Tampa Bay (6-7) and Week 18 at New Orleans (4-9), it would finish 9-8 and give the Panthers the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and Atlanta if they all finished with the same record.

The Bucs' chances of making the playoffs were 85% before Sunday's loss and are now 76%. Tampa Bay's remaining games are Cincinnati (9-4), at Arizona (4-8), Carolina (5-8), at Atlanta (5-8). The Bucs are priced -355 to make the playoffs (78%) and +270 to miss.

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