The 2022 NASCAR Playoffs conclude on Sunday with the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway. It's the final race on the 2022 NASCAR schedule and Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell will be competing for the title. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET and Elliott is the 12-5 favorite in the latest 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook. 

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season. 

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan and it was high on Tyler Reddick when he won at Texas for a 12-1 payout. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the NASCAR Series Finale 2022 and released its projections.

Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile, low-banked oval that opened in 1964 and began hosting the NASCAR Cup Series in 1988. It's been the home of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship since 2020 with Hendrick Motorsports winning the title in each of those two seasons. Chase Elliot won in 2020 while Kyle Larson won last season. Elliott is in the Final Four in search of a second championship on Sunday while Larson was eliminated prior to the Round of 8.

For the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Briscoe, even though he's a massive 50-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Ross Chastain, one of the Vegas favorites at 4-1, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup.

The model is also targeting FOUR OTHER drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Phoenix odds of 17-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship? And which longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins last season!