2022 MLB home run leader odds: Fernando Tatis Jr. injury shakes things up; sportsbook most exposed on Ronald Acuna Jr., Kris Bryant

A couple of weeks ago we learned that San Diego Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. would be lost for up to three months due to a broken left wrist suffered while motorcycling – apparently not his first injury suffered in the offseason doing that. Tatís reportedly has pledged to never ride motorcycles again, which is smart because the team in theory could void his $340 million contract. Anyways, that's a story for another day. Caesars Sportsbook has dropped Tatis Jr. from the +1100 favorite to +5000 to lead the majors in homers this season. Toronto's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now the +1000 favorite.

In finishing runner-up to Shohei Ohtani for AL MVP honors, Guerrero tied for the MLB lead with Kansas City's Salvador Perez for the most homers last year with 48. Baby Vlad has taken the most total number of tickets (10 percent) and dollars wagered (15 percent) for this market at Caesars.

"We'll see how long (Tatis is) out, but last year they said he was going to be out a while and he came back early," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "We didn't go too crazy with shifting the odds because of that fact, you can't assume he's going to be out for that long. Whenever you have a favorite that gets hurt, it's a big shake up as far as the odds go and you have to adjust rather quickly. Missing a month of games for the market like this is huge, it's already starting in bad position for the home run race.

"Guerrero is a phenomenal talent, and a lot of people think that this is the Blue Jays' year. That factors into it as well, if they're going to do well, he's going to do well. He's the hot name compared to an Alonso or Judge, he's just come on and been spectacular ever since he's been in the majors. I think he's the deserving favorite here since Tatis Jr. got injured."

The odds of two New York sluggers got a bit shorter with Tatis out: The Mets' Pete Alonso is now a +1200 second favorite and the Yankees' Aaron Judge at +1400. Remember, there is a universal DH now so NL managers can "rest" their key players like Alonso occasionally by putting them at DH instead of in the field. There's also the new "Shohei Ohtani" rule where if a starting pitcher is also hitting in the lineup, that player can remain as the DH even if he is pulled from the start. He finished third in the majors last year with 46 homers and is +1600 on this prop.

"I think Ohtani will garner more action as far as home runs go," Pullen said. "Not as much as I would have thought so far, but we'll see how the season progresses. It won't take much, if he has a two-homer game early on, people will start piling on. He's one of the most popular players in recent memory, but I expect it to come at some point especially if he gets off to a decent start."

The book's biggest liability, though, is on Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. at +3500 even though he may not be ready until the first week of May off his torn ACL. He's expected to be utilized as both a designated hitter and outfielder in the early going. Kris Bryant, who signed with the Rockies and obviously gets a boost playing half his games in the thin air of Denver, is +3000 and the second-biggest liability for the book.

"Acuna is our largest liability right now, and Bryant is second," Pullen said. "It makes sense, he's going to a hitters' park and he should hit plenty of them as long as he stays healthy. It's tough with free agents, we obviously don't want to have all of them at a lower number just based off the possibility that they sign at an extreme hitters' park. We just have to be on top of all free agency news, if someone goes to Colorado, we have to adjust their odds considerably."

Opening Day is April 7. 

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