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2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds, picks: Projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, predictions from proven model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway 10,000 times
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The NASCAR Cup Series schedule continues on Saturday with the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. It is the third race of the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs with the postseason field scheduled to be trimmed from 16 to 12 after the race and the green flag drops at 7:30 p.m. ET. Denny Hamlin is the 11-2 favorite in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds from Caesars Sportsbook. 

Our proven projection model has simulated the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race 10,000 times and come up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure's model nailed Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. Then it called Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure's model also called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix to claim the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it nailed five of Larson's wins during a historic season

So far in 2022, it was high on Ross Chastain to win in Austin, giving him a far better shot to win than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before he won as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and high on Logano again when he returned 14-1 on his win in St. Louis. In early August it was much higher on Kevin Harvick than his 17-1 odds implied and Harvick went on to capture the win at Michigan. Anyone who followed its lead on those plays saw HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on NASCAR Bristol 2022 and released its projections.

One of the most iconic venues in all of NASCAR, Bristol Motor Speedway has been hosting the NASCAR Cup Series since 1961 and the 0.533-mile oval's capacity of 153,000 makes it one of the loudest venues in motorsports. The track has annually hosted two races per year since its NASCAR debut. The first of those two races the last two seasons has been a dirt race as they've looked to shake up the NASCAR schedule. Kyle Larson won the Bristol Night Race a season ago as part of his 10-win championship campaign and he's at 13-2 in the NASCAR Bristol odds.

For the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, we can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 14-1 longshot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five! There are far better values in the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race starting lineup.

The model is also targeting TWO OTHER drivers with 2022 NASCAR at Bristol odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2022 Bass Pro Shops Night Race? And which longshots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that nailed five of Kyle Larson's wins last season!

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