2022-23 NBA win totals: Recent history says Cleveland Cavaliers will finish Under 46.5 victories

The Cleveland Cavaliers won just 22 games in the 2020-21 season so oddsmakers didn't expect much from them last year either. They opened at over/under 26.5 wins. They crushed the Over by finishing at 44-38 thanks to big leaps forward from All-Stars Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen and a near-Rookie of the Year campaign from Evan Mobley. It was the second-largest win improvement in franchise history. The Cavs are now set at 46.5 wins at Bet MGM for this season after adding All-Star Donovan Mitchell in trade this summer. But one trend says the Under may be the smart play.

As of this writing, about 95% of bets at BetMGM are on the Over, one of the most-wagered Overs in the league. However, consider that since 2004, five teams' win total increased by 20 or more games from one year to the next. All subsequently went Under. They were:

• 2010 Heat 40 to 64.5, finished with 58
• 2014 Suns 20.5 to 44, finished with 39
• 2013 Rockets 31.5 to 54.5, finished with 54
• 2004 Jazz 25.5 to 46, finished with 26
• 2021 Knicks 21.5 to 41.5, finished with 37

In a fairly big surprise on Sept. 1, Cleveland shipped forward Lauri Markkanen, rookie wing Ochai Agbaji, guard Collin Sexton, three unprotected first-round picks (2025, 2027 and 2029) and two pick swaps (2026 and 2028) to Utah for Mitchell, who had been linked to the Knicks. The 26-year-old averaged 23.9 points and 4.5 assists per game during his five-year career with the Jazz and was an All-Star each of the past three seasons. He's also a proven playoff performer.

Now the Cavs have one of the East's best offensive backcourts in Mitchell and Garland, who averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 assists last year. Neither Mitchell nor Garland is very good defensively, but the team will be just fine with Mobley and Allen patrolling the paint. Cleveland finished last season ranked No. 5 in the NBA in defensive rating (108.9) and in scoring defense (105.7). Mobley was the Rookie of the Year runner-up and finished leading all NBA rookies in blocks (1.67), rebounds (8.3), field goal percentage (.508) and double-doubles (21).

Cleveland opens the season tonight at Toronto, which had the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year in Scottie Barnes. The Raptors will be without two bench players at a minimum in Otto Porter and Khem Birch, and Chris Boucher is questionable. 

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