2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers bet strategy for Saturday's race

A field of 12 horses will try to take a step towards the 2021 Kentucky Derby when the starting gate opens on Saturday in the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The Dale Romans-trained Smiley Sobotka is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2021 Sam F. Davis odds. Post time is 5:02 p.m. ET. 

Before you make any 2021 Sam F. Davis picks, you NEED to see what racing insider Bob Weir has to say.

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer's landmark handicapping book "Picking Winners" in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer's figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day.

Weir's methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas! And on Sunday he hit the late Pick 4 at Sam Houston Race Park.

Last year, his first for SportsLine, Weir was on fire. In June, Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. He crushed the exacta and trifecta in the Forego Stakes in August for $1,134.50. He hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, June 19, June 25, July 2 and July 5, with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Last Sunday, he nailed the late Pick 4 at Sam Houston Race Park. Anyone who has followed Weir is way up.

Now, he has handicapped the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes field, made his picks and constructed his bets. 

One shocker: Weir is almost completely fading Smiley Sobotka, even though he's the top favorite at 3-1.

Instead, Weir's top pick is a horse who "has every right to improve as a three-year-old." He also is high on another double-digit long shot who can spice up your payday. Weir is including these horses in his exactas, and so should you. You ABSOLUTELY need to see which horses they are before locking in any picks!

Who wins the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes? And which double-digit long shot is a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to get the top 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes picks and bets, all from the racing insider who's coming off a HUGE score last Sunday at Sam Houston Race Park!