2021 NCAA Tournament trends, odds: History of No. 12 seed vs. No. 5; UC Santa Barbara, Georgetown, Winthrop, Oregon State are No. 12s this year
In 30 of the last 35 NCAA Tournaments, the 12 seed has won at least one first-round game vs. a No. 5.
There's no such thing as a lock when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. That was proven in the 2018 Big Dance when Virginia became the first and still only No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 in the first round. In fact, the Wahoos were the No. 1 overall seed that tournament. UVA would come back and win it all in 2019 – the last NCAA Tournament played.  That said, while it's not a "lock" that at least one No. 12 seed loses to a No. 5 in the 2021 NCAA Tournament's first round, it's very likely.
Since the field expanded to 64 teams (now 68) in 1985, the only times that the 5 seeds all prevailed were in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015 and 2018.
In 2019, three No. 12 seeds won in the first round: Liberty over Mississippi State in the East Region, Oregon over Wisconsin in the South, and Murray State -- led by current Memphis Grizzlies star Ja Morant – beating Marquette in the West Region.
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Oregon would advance to the Sweet 16 before getting beaten by eventual champion Virginia. Morant, meanwhile, had 17 points, 16 assists and 11 rebounds in that upset of the Big East's Golden Eagles for only the ninth triple-double in NCAA Tournament history (they started being tracked in 1987).
The only No. 5 that won in Round 1 in 2019 was Auburn, and it was a 78-77 thriller over New Mexico State. The Aggies' Terrell Brown had an open three-point try with 1.1 seconds left. He missed but was fouled. Brown missed the first free throw, made the second and missed the third. A No. 12 seed is 20-28 vs. a No. 5 in games decided by four points or fewer.
Yet To Be An All-12 Sweep
There never has been an NCAA Tournament where all four No. 12 seeds advanced. Overall, the No. 12 is 50-90 straight up vs. the No. 5, a winning percentage of 35.7. A total of 21 No. 12 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 but one has never gotten to the Final Four.
The deepest run by a 12 was Missouri to the Elite Eight in 2002. One school has been a No. 12 more times than any other: Utah State. The Aggies are 1-4 against No. 5s, with that victory over Ohio State in overtime in 2001. This year, the No. 12s are UC Santa Barbara (West), Georgetown (East), Winthrop (South) and Oregon State (Midwest).
In the past five NCAA Tournaments, No. 12s are 6-14 straight up against No. 5s. However, the 12 has covered the spread in 14 of the 20. The Over/Under is 14-5-1 in those games.
There have been a few times over the years that a No. 12 has been the favorite over a No. 5. It last happened in 2017 when No. 5 Minnesota was +1.5 against No. 12 Middle Tennessee, with the Blue Raiders winning 81-72. Eastern Michigan's 20-point win over Mississippi State in 1991 is the largest margin of victory by a No. 12 seed over a No. 5.
Michigan State has been a terrific team as a No. 5 seed when facing a No. 12, going 6-0 – although all six were by single digits. The Spartans have reached two Final Fours as a No. 5, last in 2010 when Tom Izzo's club lost in the semifinals to another No. 5, Butler. Izzo's club is a No. 11 this year, however, and faces No. 11 UCLA in the First Four.
A No. 5 has never won a national title, the only seed in the Top 8 without one. Three No. 5s have been to the title game.
5 vs. 12 games in 2021 NCAA Tournament & William Hill odds
West: No. 5 Creighton (-6.5) vs. No. 12 UC Santa Barbara, Saturday, 3:30 PM ET
East: No. 5 Colorado (-5) vs. No. 12 Georgetown, Saturday, 12:15 PM ET
South: No. 5 Villanova (-6) vs. No. 12 Winthrop, Friday, 9:57 PM ET
Midwest: No. 5 Tennessee (-7.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon State, Friday, 4:30 PM ET
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