2021 NCAA Tournament futures odds, trends entering Sweet 16: Bettors destroying Gonzaga to win title, but sportsbooks most exposed on Oregon State
Bettors at William Hill Sportsbook are absolutely crushing Gonzaga to win the national championship, but Oregon State is the book's biggest worry.
Gonzaga has been the college basketball national championship betting favorite pretty much all season at William Hill Sportsbook, and nothing has changed through two rounds of the Big Dance. The Zags are now down to +130 to win their first title and bettors are just crushing Coach Mark Few's team. However, the book's biggest liability is not on the Bulldogs but on Pac-12 long shot Oregon State, with the Beavers currently +6000.
The unbeaten Zags blew out No. 16 Norfolk State 98-55 in Round 1 and then had little trouble with No. 8 Oklahoma in Round of 32 West Region action, 87-71. Gonzaga, rather amazingly, has just one single-digit victory all season, and is first in both total number of tickets (22 percent) and total dollars wagered (42 percent) among all remaining championship futures bets at William Hill. The Zags are 13.5-point favorites for their Sweet 16 matchup Sunday vs. No. 5 Creighton.
Just for a point of reference, second on the number of tickets sold is South Region No. 1 Baylor (+400) at 12 percent, and the Bears couldn't meet Gonzaga until the national title game. On total dollars wagered, East Region No. 1 Michigan (+550), which could face the Zags in the Final Four, is second way down at 16 percent.
Oregon State wouldn't have sniffed the Big Dance without a shocking run to the Pac-12 Tournament title, and the Midwest Region 12th seed has followed with upsets of No. 5 Tennessee and No. 4 Oklahoma State in the Big Dance – winning both by double digits. Now, coach Wayne Tinkle's team has sportsbooks worried.
"The one team we get throttled with is the mighty Beavers of Oregon State," said Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill US. "We lose close to seven figures with Oregon State. We had them at 2000/1, 1000/1, 750/1, 350/1 and now they're down to 60/1."
For what it's worth, a 12th seed (or worse) has never reached the Final Four, much less won a title. Only No. 15 seed Oral Roberts at +12500 has longer national championship odds.
The Beavers are 7-point underdogs Saturday against No. 8 seed Loyola (Chicago), with the Ramblers down to +1400 to win it all after shocking Midwest Region No. 1 Illinois last weekend.
Of the schools remaining with odds lower than +2000, Loyola has seen the biggest shift from the beginning of the Dance. The Ramblers were +7500 on March 18, tied for the 18th-lowest odds with North Carolina, San Diego State and Purdue (all long gone).
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