The NASCAR Playoffs will reach their conclusion on Sunday with the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway. The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET and Kyle Larson is the 6-5 favorite in the latest 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook.

Our proven projection model has simulated the race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model takes into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout and then it called Larson's win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks. Anyone who has followed its lead on those plays has seen HUGE returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Joey Logano, even though he's a 22-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Phoenix odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 7-2, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top five! There are far better values in this loaded 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship starting lineup.

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Phoenix odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs this driver could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who he is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Championship? And which long shots are a MUST-BACK? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Kyle Larson's wins in two of the last three weeks!