The NASCAR season continues on Sunday with the 2021 Instacart 500 at Phoenix Raceway. The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET. Kevin Harvick is the favorite at 9-2 in the latest 2021 Instacart 500 odds from William Hill Sportsbook.

Our proven projection model has simulated this race 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. 

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns! 

Now, the model has dialed in on the 2021 Instacart 500 and released its projections. 

We can tell you the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he's a 17-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Phoenix odds. He's a target for anyone looking for a HUGE payday. And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the top Vegas favorites at 11-2, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top five! There are far better values in this loaded field.

The model is also targeting another driver with NASCAR at Phoenix odds longer than 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag! Anyone who backs this driver could hit it BIG. You ABSOLUTELY need to see who it is before locking in any NASCAR picks.

So who wins the 2021 Instacart 500? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the full projected NASCAR at Phoenix leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin's win at last year's Daytona 500!