2023 Wyndham Championship golf odds, trends: Bettors big on Denny McCarthy, Si Woo Kim to win; struggling Justin Thomas needs Top 10 finish to reach FedExCup playoffs

As per last year, this week's Wyndham Championship from North Carolina is the final event of the PGA Tour's regular season schedule and ahead of the FedExCup playoffs, but there is one major difference in 2023: Only the Top 70 advance to golf's postseason, and right now American star Justin Thomas is outside the bubble. To win the Wyndham, bettors are leaning heavy on both Denny McCarthy and Si Woo Kim.

In order to make the FedExCup playoffs more exclusive, the postseason field has been dropped from the Top 125 entering it to the Top 70. Thomas, a 15-time PGA Tour winner, including two PGA Championships and one Players Championship, is having a really rough season and is sitting 79th in points. Thomas has advanced to the Tour Championship in each of the last seven seasons, including winning the 2017 FedExCup title.

If he finishes outside the Top 18 this week, Thomas for sure will not advance. He has five Top-18 results in 19 starts this season and not since the week after the US Open at the Travelers Championship (T9).

If Thomas finishes Top 5, he will advance (no Top 5s this season) and with a Top 10 (three) almost surely will. To miss the cut, Thomas is +160, and obviously that would seal his playoff fate. Thomas has missed six cuts this year, including back-to-back tournaments (last week's 3M Open, British Open). Caesars Sportsbook gives him an Over/Under finishing position of 43.5. JT hasn't played this tournament since a missed cut in 2016.

Only two players have qualified for the FedExCup Playoffs in each season since their inception in 2007: Matt Kuchar, who enters the week No. 59 in the standings, and Adam Scott (No. 81). The Aussie needs no worse than a two-way T9 to have a chance to move into the Top 70. Scott did finish runner-up here two years ago.  American Austin Eckroat currently holds the 70th and final playoff spot and England's Ben Taylor is at 71.

It's always interesting to see how different sportsbooks can be in terms of betting action in an individual sport like golf. For example at BetMGM: South Korea's Si Woo Kim is a +2000 co-favorite and easily taking the most action to win the tournament with 11.1% of the money and 6.7% of the tickets, both No. 1 on the board. Kim won this event in 2016 and finished Top 5 each year from 2019-21 before withdrawing in 2022.

At DraftKings, however, it's Denny McCarthy at +2500 who is taking a ton of action with 13% of the handle and 9% of bets, both tops on the board. Kim is fourth at that site. McCarthy isn't among the three-most wagered golfers at BetMGM. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour but has four Top 10s from his most recent eight starts overall. McCarthy missed the cut here last year but finished Top 25 each of the previous three years with a high of T9.

Each of the last two PGA Tour events have been won by a margin of six strokes or more: Brian Harman at British Open and Lee Hodges at the 3M Open. The last time three consecutive tournaments on the Tour schedule were decided by five strokes or more was during the 2017-18 season: Francesco Molinari at Quicken Loans National (8); Kevin Na at The Greenbrier Classic (5); and Michael Kim at the John Deere Classic (8).

That the winning margin is four strokes or more at the Wyndham is +350, same as a playoff or two strokes exactly. One stroke is the +200 favorite. Last year, Tom Kim (another South Korean) won by five at 20-under 260, but he isn't defending due to injury. 

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