Group A is in significant flux after Senegal star Sadio Mane was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to injury. But Senegal's loss is Ecuador's gain and turns this match from a mostly ceremonial affair between two teams unlikely to advance into a must win for the South American club. Expect them to get it done. This team advanced in a stacked South American qualifying region with a goal difference of +8 and have some top level talent including Brighton midfielder Moises Caicedo. This very well may be a year of South American dominance at the World Cup, and I expect that to extend down beyond just Brazil and Argentina to Uruguay and Ecuador as well.

Since the host country has been slotted in the tournament's opener, it has won all four matches. That explains the too-tight odds because the difference in talent does not. Ecuador doesn't contribute to the "beautiful game" slogan associated with soccer, given that most of its matches end 1-0 or in a scoreless draw, but will not be stuck on zero here. Qatar wouldn't be in the field if not for the automatic qualifier awarded to it. The hosts' win streak in openers should end.

Qatar and Ecuador kick off the 2022 World Cup and I expect this match to be a low scoring affair. Ecuador have recorded a shutout in each of their last six games leading up to the World Cup, and they’ve failed to score in four of their last five. Over Ecuador's last 12 games, Over 2.5 goals have been scored just once. Those matches include games against Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Japan, all teams set to play in the World Cup. Qatar, meanwhile, have been shutout in two of their last three fixtures, a perfect recipe for Under 2.5 goals.

The hosts might not be here otherwise, but they are no slouch. This might be their only chance at a victory in front of their home crowd, with Senegal and the Netherlands also in Group A. Qatar have won five straight friendlies, scoring eight goals in the process while conceding two, against the likes of Panama and Honduras. Ecuador have won twice in their past 10 matches (2-7-1), never scoring more than once. They are 44th in the FIFA rankings and Qatar are 50th, and I think the atmosphere pushes the hosts over.