This game features two of the top three scoring defenses in the nation. Combined, they have given up just 18.4 points per game. Throw in the Hawkeye offense, which is the worst in the Big Ten and this just screams under.

The Illinois Fighting Illini have the best defense in the FBS allowing just 8.4 points per game. The Illini are 4-1 SU and ATS this season due to their ferocious defense. Now they get to play one of the worst offenses in the FBS. The Iowa Hawkeyes average just 12.8 offensive points per game, worst in the Big Ten and 3rd-worst in all of the FBS. The Illini should be able to stop the Hawkeyes offense from doing anything of substance in this game. This spread is way too small. Lay the points.

Illinois is 4-1 SU and ATS with the nation’s leading rusher in Chase Brown. The Illini are coming off a huge 34-10 win at Wisconsin to face an underperforming Iowa squad with the third-worst offense in college football averaging just 242 ypg. The game is at Illinois and the Illinois defense will make it hard on the Hawkeyes. The Illini defense leads the nation allowing just 8.4 ppg and is No. 3 in yards allowed (234 ypg). It’s payback time after Iowa has won the last eight meetings. Take Illinois to cover.

We're not overthinking this. Illinois is off to its best start in years thanks to an elite defense that is putting up numbers akin too, and sometimes better than, what we've seen from teams like Georgia and Alabama. Iowa is excellent defensively too. Iowa's offense is Iowa's offense, and while the Illinois offense has improved a lot from last season, it's still not an above average unit. This game screams "first to 17 wins," so take the under.