Atlético Madrid at home is one of the best bets in footy. Osasuna are coming off two ugly losses, 5-2 to Alavés and 2-0 to Espanyol, and generated just 0.85 xG in the latter. No Julián Álvarez certainly matters, but Atlético have been a machine at the Metropolitano. They went 15-1-3 at home last season with 38.78 xG compared to just 17.76 xGA. The year before, they went 14-4-1 while posting 42.02 xG and 14.80 xGA. A 29-5-4 home record over the last two La Liga seasons is enough to back them against a sliding side.

For some reason, I just don’t trust Villarreal’s defense right now. They conceded to Deportivo Alaves, gave up two to Atletico Madrid, and allowed two more against Racing Santander. Two of their first three matches have gone over the total. You could play this a little safer and take both teams to score, but I think Villarreal can get to two goals on its own in this spot. If Deportivo La Coruna finds the back of the net once, we’re in a pretty good position to cash the over. Villarreal has enough attacking quality to do its part, and I don’t trust this defense further than I can throw it.

My first instinct in this match is to bet the over, but that 3.5 total feels just a little too high. I don’t think Betis is going to open this game up and let Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior run wild. This feels like a match where the home side slows things down, stays compact and tries to hang around until late. I’m OK if this one blows up in my face because I think I’m getting a number that has gone a touch too far. Madrid is also on the road, where goals are usually a little harder to come by, and its defense has shown some real muscle early this season. It’ll probably be sweaty, but I’m betting the under.

Jose Mourinho’s side is anything but a finished product, but I love this spot for Madrid in the home opener. The attack should have every opportunity to get going against a Real Sociedad side that did not exactly inspire confidence during preseason. Naturally, I looked toward the Madrid team total first, but I prefer laying the -1.5 here. Sociedad struggled throughout its warmup matches, and this feels like a difficult place to suddenly figure things out. Madrid should control possession, create plenty of chances and eventually pull away. I have this finishing somewhere in the 3-0 or 3-1 range, which makes Madrid -1.5 my preferred way to play it.

It starts against Malaga, a team Atletico have beaten in six of their last seven meetings. Atletico have scored nine goals in their last five matches but haven’t kept a clean sheet, so BTTS and Over 2.5 are both interesting. Still, I want to target Atletico’s team total. With Almada, Lookman, Kang-in Lee and Grimaldo, there’s plenty of attacking talent. I have Atletico winning something like 3-1 or 4-1.

I’m taking the points with Rayo Vallecano on the road against Sevilla. Sevilla weren’t great last season, winning just 12 of 38 matches while losing 19. Rayo were a much tougher out, also winning 12 matches but drawing 14, and they posted a solid 32% clean sheet rate. Rayo also traveled well, finishing eighth in road scoring. With European football on the schedule this season, banking points early is going to matter before the fixture list starts to get crowded. This feels like a spot where Rayo can make life difficult for Sevilla and keep this one close.

Barcelona have a chance to finish a great season on a high note against a Valencia side they have dominated. Over the last five meetings, Barcelona have outscored them 24-3. Even with some potential motivation concerns after winning the league, this is still a solid price to back the champions.

Girona are in a must-win spot at home. With three points, they give themselves a real chance to fight off relegation. With a loss, they are going down. I expect a big effort from them, and fortunately, they get an Elche side that has struggled badly away from home this season. Elche have just one road win all year and have lost eight of their last nine away matches. Girona are not exactly a team I trust, but given the situation and the opponent, this feels like a must-play spot.

I’m backing Rayo Vallecano here, more as a fade of Girona than anything else. First and foremost, I don’t think Girona will be physical enough to match Rayo away from home. Even in the reverse fixture, Rayo dominated them physically. Rayo have now gone five unbeaten and have lost just twice at home all season. Girona, meanwhile, are on a three-game slide, and things aren’t going to get better. I’ll take Rayo draw no bet here, just in case Girona grind out a point.

If you want the most value, bet Barcelona to win and both teams to score. The last time an El Clásico didn’t see both teams score was back in 2024. Real Madrid are also as banged up as they have been in quite some time, with Mbappe, Valverde, Rodrygo, Militao, Carvajal, Mendy and Güler all unavailable. Barcelona will be without Lamine Yamal, but the rest of the squad is available. I like goals here. There have been at least four goals in seven of the last nine meetings between these two, and with Madrid missing so many key pieces defensively and in transition, Barcelona should have every chance to win this match while still conceding.

Both teams to score is my favorite parlay anchor of the day in this match. It has hit in 76% of Betis away matches and 76% of Sociedad home matches. The over 2.5 is just as nice. At least three goals have been scored in 71% of Sociedad home matches, while Betis away matches have cleared that number 47% of the time. Neither team defends particularly well, and this should have the feel of an end-to-end contest with Sociedad needing a win and Betis trying to hold on to a European place. Betis are the better side and could easily score first, which would open this match up even more. That should give us stretched defenses, space in transition, and plenty of counterattacking opportunities.

I have a hard time believing Atlético Madrid will put in any real effort in this match. They’ve already secured Champions League football for next season and have a crucial UCL semi-final coming up midweek. The expectation is that Simeone will rotate his squad. Atleti haven’t taken La Liga seriously of late, winning just one of their last five matches (1-0-4).

Mallorca come in with some of the better form in the league, winning three of their last five. For Alaves, it’s all about safety. They need points to stay clear of relegation, and at minimum, a draw. If this match is level with 20 minutes to play, it’s hard to see them pushing for a winner. While I don’t put too much weight on past matchups, the recent matchups are too hard to ignore. These sides have gone under 2.5 goals in five straight meetings. Mallorca haven’t been much of an under team this season, largely because they concede way too much. But this sets up as a spot where an under makes sense if you’re looking to attack it.