I’ve doubted Indiana long enough and now I’m done. This team is absolutely for real and they’re going to prove it in Miami’s home stadium on Monday night. The Hoosiers’ defense has only given up more than 20 points twice: at Penn State and in garbage time against Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Don’t expect Miami to find a ton of success against that unit. On the other side, I think the Hurricanes will keep the game close before Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana to two fourth quarter touchdowns and an improbable National Championship to say the least. Indiana 27, Miami 17.

I’ve been way off in the College Football Playoff games as evidenced by me liking Texas Tech and Alabama on New Year’s Day. Both of these Big Ten teams were awesome and their defenses looked impenetrable. Indiana shockingly won in Eugene in October, 30-20, so I lean towards Oregon in the rematch. Like Miami, Indiana hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game this season, but I have to think that Ducks' OC Will Stein will make the necessary adjustments to succeed. I have continued to doubt the Hoosiers, but their offense led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza is impressive. Either way, I think this one is decided by four points or less, something like 27-24 Ducks.

As someone with annual Fiesta Bowl tickets, I was thrilled at the possibility of an Ohio State-Georgia semifinal game on Thursday night. But Miami’s domination of the line of scrimmage against the Buckeyes and Trinidad Chambliss’ theatrics vs. the Bulldogs changed that. This game should be a barn burner regardless, but I lean towards the Hurricanes for two reasons: Their physicality against Texas A&M and Ohio State was superior, plus the continuing uncertainty around the Rebels’ coaching staff can be a distraction. Interesting streaks on the line here: Ole Miss has scored 30+ points in eight straight games, while Miami hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in regulation all season. Give me the Hurricanes, 28-21.

I’ll be attending my second Holiday Bowl on Friday to watch my alma mater go for its second 10-win season in the last three years. It was a magical 5-0 run for my Wildcats in November, fueled by a defense that forced 28 turnovers this season (currently T3 in the nation). SMU was a late-November win away from playing in the ACC Championship Game before losing 38-35 at Cal. Does this team really want to be here when the Mustangs arguably could’ve been in the CFP for the second straight season? The motivation and fan support should be all Wildcats.

In its last four games, Georgia has surrendered 10, 3, 9, and 7 points. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bulldogs ended up winning the National Championship again, though I still lean Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl. Don’t expect the wild shootout that we saw on Oct. 18. Both defenses will come to play and keep this one in the 40s so we’re getting some value here. Personally, I’m be parlaying Georgia ML with the Under at better than 3-to-2 odds.

Let’s think back to last year when the undefeated and top-ranked Big Ten champion entered the Rose Bowl against a team which was talented but had question marks. Final score: Ohio State 41, Oregon 21. And the game wasn’t even that close. While I don’t think this one will be a blowout like last year, did Indiana already win its National Championship of sorts by beating Ohio State while Fernando Mendoza took home the Heisman Trophy? Alabama has the better athletes and showed its mettle after a brutal start vs. Oklahoma. This game should be close but talent wins out. I'm predicting an outright upset, but just in case I'll take the points.

The Red Raiders have looked elite all season. Yes, I know it’s the Big 12 but outside of losing to Arizona State with a backup QB, their next closest game was decided by 22 points. The oddsmakers are not giving Texas Tech enough credit. That defense is a top-three unit in America. Meanwhile, who did Oregon really beat? Penn State? In overtime no less. Iowa? On a last-second field goal. USC? Always a fade on the road. Washington? Also inconsistent. Get ready for the Big Ten PR spin after they lose this one.

I was at the 2003 National Championship Game between these two schools and the amount of talent on that field was ridiculous. But I digress -- both teams are coming off lackluster offensive performances in their last games, scoring only 10 points each. Don’t expect the Miami offense to find better footing in this contest. The Buckeyes have allowed 16 or fewer points in every game and I have a hard time seeing the Hurricanes exceeding that mark in the Cotton Bowl. Look for Ryan Day to open up the playbook and for OSU to cruise to at least a two-score victory.

It's USC on the road...you know what to do. Lincoln Riley simply doesn't cover in these games. Dating back to last year, USC has only covered the spread twice, including by a point against UCLA in 2024 and half a point from the finishing line vs. Notre Dame. If you bet those at the wrong times, you might be o-fer betting the Trojans. I think they'll rally for a win in Lincoln but would hardly be surprised if they don't. USC 28, Nebraska 24.

It’s been a very profitable angle to fade the worst team in the Power 4 conferences. Oklahoma State is 1-7 ATS with the only cover by 3 points in a blowout loss to Baylor (who is also terrible ATS). Look for Kansas to take out their frustrations in a big way against a bunch of players who don't have much to play for until 2026. Kansas 42, Oklahoma State 10.

I might very well regret this pick as Indiana is playing like a machine. But the Terrapins are 5-2 ATS this season and all three of their losses have been by single digits. Just maybe Indiana could be looking ahead to Penn State next week? If so, I think Maryland can make this interesting for a while. Indiana 30, Maryland 17.

The Kansas State offense is rolling right now having scored 34-34-41-42 in their last four games. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has scored 34+ points in 7 of 8 games this season. I think the Red Raiders are on upset alert for this game which will be played in the 30s. Texas Tech 35, Kansas State 31.

Sometimes the trends don't lie in the game formerly called the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party"...at least on paper. Georgia has scored 34 or more points (including in the 40s three times) against Florida in each of the last five meetings. The Gators have scored 20 points in each of the last three years against the Bulldogs. Sometimes it's best not to overthink things. Georgia 34, Florida 20.

Sometimes the trends don’t lie. Since 2014, there hasn’t been more than 43 points in this game (11 meetings). In fact, 31 or less points have been scored in 9 of the last 11 matchups. Air Force’s offense has been a lot more potent this season and their defense not as much. Expect this one to finish in well under three hours. Army 20, Air Force 17.

This is play of the week material for me. The line may be low without Arch Manning but remember than Matthew Caldwell is a 5th year senior and has played at four different schools. Texas has played a much more difficult schedule is battle-tested. Vandy got walloped in their biggest road test – at Alabama (30-14). Look for the Longhorns’ defense to put the clamps on Diego Pavia and end any Heisman conversation. Texas 24, Vanderbilt 13.