Jon's Picks (2 Live)
This game is going to be an absolute chaotic nightmare of match. On one hand we have Verona, a club who is 10 points down into the relegation zone, with only three wins and 18 points over their 33 games. They have only 23 goals scored this season, while conceding 56. On the other hand, Lecce have 28 points, and three points here could be the difference between survival and relegation. They do however, have even less goals scored than Verona, with only 22. I expect both teams to sit back and try to just survive, and the lesser of two evils for goals, for me, is Lecce. Give me a 1-0 win for Lecce.
Bologna have comfortably found themselves as a middle of the pack club this season. The team is sitting eighth on the table, well off facing any form of relegation, but are now 10 points behind a European spot, meaning there isn't much chance of finishing in a significant spot. While their motivation for points is dropping, Roma are fighting tooth and nail for a top four finish. The club is sitting sixth on the table, but three points and a win here could propel them past Como to fifth, bringing them closer to UCL play. Expect Roma even in iffy form to be much for a Bologna side who has struggled at home all season long.
Let's start with the obvious points here. Napoli is the better team, and to be frank, it's not even close. Also Cremonese have a terrible attack and have struggled to score all year in Serie A, and yet here I stand taking an over. Why? Because Cremonese are teetering on the edge of relegation. Every single point between now and the end of the season is crucial, and could spell the difference between another year in Serie A, or losing tens of millions of dollars. Cremonese can't stop Napoli from scoring, so expect them to press. I LOVE BTTS here at +125, but expect the over to hit as well.
We're going to walk a bit of a tightrope for this match. I do believe that AC Milan will win this match. I do not believe, however, that they will win it by more than one goal. Udinese have done an incredible job in recent months of keeping matches close against the best teams in Italy. They've played Como, Juventus, Atalanta, Bologna, Roma, Inter and Lazio. This team has covered this spread in their last 15 matches. Even though AC Milan are the better team and will be motivated, I'm not fading a Udinese side who is continuously showing up.
Juventus is the better team here for sure and are heavily motivated as they try to climb their way to a top four position, however, I don't believe they win by multiple goals. Genoa are in fantastic form right now, and if you look at the last six matches against between these two sides, Juventus has only covered this spread a single time. I expect Genoa to keep this close, and wouldn't be surprised if Juventus ends up winning 2-1/1-0.
Atalanta's form as of late has been blowing very hot or cold. This is a club that has shown that they are capable of incredible feats of strength and are capable of fighting the best clubs in Italy one week, then the next they are limping past Verona. While it's tricky to bet on a team like this, sometimes it's just easier to fade their opponents. Lecce are in the relegation zone, and a big reason is because they have the worst attack in Italy. Only 21 goals scored over 30 matches. They might be able to slow down Atalanta, but I don't believe that will matter.
This is one of those really tough matchups where we have a pitch loaded with high-scoring attacking talents, but I don't believe that will equate to goals in this fixture. Both Roma and Inter have incredibly tough to break backlines as these are two of the best defensive units in the league. Roma have only allowed 23 goals, and Inter, 24 goals. Not to mention out of the last six times they've played each other, under 2.5 goals has hit in five of the six, with the last three ending 1-0. I'm expecting a low scoring win for Inter.
Como continue to be the biggest breath of fresh air in the entirety of Serie A this season as the club continues to climb heights that very few people expected them to climb. The team is currently sitting in a UCL spot as they are fourth on the Serie A table, but don't have near enough room to slow things down. This is a team that equal on games played with clubs like Juventus and Roma, control their own destiny. They are far superior to Pisa, and while Pisa wallows in relegation, Como's strikers continue to impress. I expect Pisa to win this game, comfortably, by more than one goal, and wouldn't be at all surprised if they run up the score on Pisa.
Parma is not a team we generally talk about when we talk about the Italian clubs really performing, but man do they look good so far in 2026. They are currently on an unbeaten run over their last five matches. During that streak, we saw them beat Verona, take down Milan, sneak ahead of Bologna, and draw against Fiorentina. This is a team that is no longer being written off as a free three points, and I'm not expecting a Torino side, that is limping to the finish line, to beat them.
Fiorentina after an abysmal start to the season, have really started to turn things around. The club won their last two Serie A matches taking down Pisa, which isn't that impressive, but also Como on the road. They've also scored against clubs like Napoli, Lazio, and Torino in recent weeks. Not to mention, when these two teams played in December, Fiorentina stomped Udinese 5-1. Fiorentina is fixing their form, while Udinese has been falling a part. I think Fiorentina will win outright, but I like this DNB line.
Fiorentina have become an absolute delight for those of us that like to bet on goals. Every since they finally picked up their first win they've been fighting for goals tooth and nail every single minute. We've now seen BTTS hit in eight consecutive matches, with seven of those matches also seeing over 2.5 goals. It doesn't matter who they play, they always tend to bring out goals from their opponents.
Hellas Verona's abysmal season continues as the club finds themselves falling closer and closer to a trip back to Serie B. Sitting 20th on the table, they have a lead record 14 losses already this season, just finding 15 points in 25 games. Sassuolo are doing the opposite right now, finding wins in three of their last five matches, and have been fantastic at home. Expecting a big win for Sassuolo.
Como continue to be the talk of the league as this recently promoted side are consinstently fighting and taking points off the biggest clubs in Italy. Under the tutelage of the legendary manager Cesc FÃ bregas, the club is currently in the top six of the table with a massive 11 wins and an almost league low four losses. Players like Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata continue to perform, and they'll be licking their lips at a chance to play a struggling, albeit, high scoring Fiorentina side. I'm expecting fireworks.