Jon's Picks (1 Live)
Pisa are a side who did a fantastic job to find promotion from Serie B this season. While they did a good job getting here, it appears they might quite not be ready for the change to the top flight of Italian football. Pisa are the lowest scoring team in Serie A and have now failed to score in, and have lost their last three matches straight. Cagliari are the better side on paper, and will use their massive home-field advantage to propel them further out of the relegation scrap with a big win over an out of form opposition.
Ohhhh baby. This is going to be a train wreck. We have the two absolute worst teams in Italy clashing. Verona and Fiorentina have played a combined 28 matches of Serie A this season. Out of those 28 matches, there's been a single win. Fiorentina remains the only team in Serie A, B, or C that hasn't picked up a win. To call their season shambolic would be too kind. Regardless, this is the match where they need to do something. Fiorentina need to win. They need to get points while taking points away from other teams facing relegation. Expect chaos in this match as desperation will be palpable on the pitch between two abysmal defenses.
This is a wildly disrespectful line for how well Cagliari have been playing, especially considering Atalanta are going to be exhausted after hosting Chelsea in UCL play and not getting proper rest. Cagliari are coming into this match off the back of a win over Roma, a draw over Napoli, a 2-1 loss to Juve, and draws against Como and Genoa. This is a side that doesn't crumble under pressure. If they go down 1-0, they don't lose their minds and panic, they lock in and get a goal back. Atalanta are the better side, but they are not the better side by a 1.5 spread. I see a draw here.
I love Cremonese. They are one of the most consistently inconsistent teams in European football. One week they're beating up Bologna 3-1 and smacking Lecce 2-0, the next week their losing to Pisa without scoring. What I will say, is right now, Cremonese seems to be clicking, and the legend himself Jamie Vardy was just announced the November Serie A player of the year. Vardy is adjusting to Italian football and the more he does, the better this side becomes. I think Cremonese win outright if they play how they've been playing. Torino haven't won a match since October 26. They haven't won any of their last six matches. Maybe they'll sneak a draw if they're lucky - but give me the spread all day!
Milan are a tough team to watch if you're a fan of high scoring affairs. This is a team that have come specialists for low scoring victories. Four of their last five matches have had the exact same scoreline of 1-0. They beat Inter that way, they beat Lazio that way, and they beat Roma that way all in the month of November. This is a team that has strong attacks up front, but aren't afraid to slow things down when needed. Take the ML, but avoid the over.
Roma have been the impressive wildcard of Serie A so far this season. They are currently only three point off the top of the table, and 13 matches into the season they have only conceded seven goals. They are a defensive powerhouses who has shown time and time again they are capable of physically and mentally frustrating their opponents. They've also been the best road team in all of Serie A this season. They picked up 15 points over their six road matches, and going against Cremonese who only have one win at home, the juice is worth the squeeze backing Roma.
Bologna have been on an absolute terror over the last month. The team has risen to fifth on the Serie A table, and did that by taking points off Udinese, Torino, and Napoli. This team has also shown a lot of firepower recently as we saw them dismantle RB Salzburg 4-1 when playing in UEFA play earlier last week. They are one of the few teams who are unbeaten at home this season, and I don't see that streak ending to a streaky Cremonese side who is coming off a brutal run of losses. Bologna's superior attack and defense should make this -1 spread worst case, push in my mind.
Genoa have been an absolute treat to watch in the month of November. They have gone against Cagliari, Sassuolo and Fiorentina with a sense of whimsy in their attack. They are a horrible offensive relegation bound team, that has scored seven goals in their last three games. While Verona continues to stumble and is failing to fix anything wrong with the club, Genoa has started to turn on the heat - and I think they cover this over by themselves.
This line doesn't make sense to me, and that's just the reality of betting on this sport. Sometimes, you're not going to agree with the lines. Parma have gone over 2.5 goals in their last five matches. The head-to-head between these two teams has seen BTTs hit in six of the last eight and over 2.5 goals hit in six of the last eight. Parma is coming off taking points off Verona and Milan, and are letting their high line play higher every match. Both teams will think they can escape with three points, which should equate to goals for us!
Como have scored 17 goals over their first 12 matches in Serie A play. Five of them, came against Torino earlier this week when Como on the road rampaged in Olympic Grande Torino. Como snapped their low scoring draw streak to show that with Nico Paz and Jayden Addai leading the charge, they can flood the goal. Sassuolo have seen the over cover in their last four matches straight, as they continue to play up or down to their competition.
This match is going to be... just, awful. There's not a better word to describe this. Fiorentina, the team that finished sixth in Serie A last season, is dead last this season. They have zero wins, only nine goals scored, and just five points. Meanwhile, Juventus had a month period where they just stopped trying for some reason, but now they're trying again? I have no clue what the scoreline is, but I do think Spalletti will get his team back on the right foot, and expect Juventus to find their footing.
Out of all 20 clubs participating in Serie A this season, there is only one club averaging half a goal or less scored per match. That team is the host, Parma. Parma is struggling to find their footing after a less than stellar off season transfer window. Parma is relying on striker Mateo Pellegrino to find goals, and he doesn't have the support cast he needs to find goals. AC Milan need a win with the league race as close as it is, and expect them to step up, even on the road.
Pisa are one of the three teams left in Serie A play who 10 matches into the season, are yet to find a single win. While they are struggling to win, the have managed to become a bit of a draw specialist, with their last four matches straight ending with no victor. This is a team that either plays up or plays down to their competition, but never seems to have enough to claim all three points. While I wouldn't be shocked to see another draw, I can't ignore a better Cremonese side on the spread.
Como are one of the most exciting clubs in Europe at the moment and possess one of the most exciting youngsters. Como are entering this matchup after taking down Serie A giants Juventus 2-0 at home. They've also taking points off big sides like Atalanta, Fiorentina and Lazio. This team, led by Nico Paz could very well finish in a top European spot after just two seasons back in Serie A, and they'll be looking at this weakened Parma side to find another big three points. This shouldn't be plus odds, but I won't complain about a nice cash betting on the more in form side!