Fiorentina after an abysmal start to the season, have really started to turn things around. The club won their last two Serie A matches taking down Pisa, which isn't that impressive, but also Como on the road. They've also scored against clubs like Napoli, Lazio, and Torino in recent weeks. Not to mention, when these two teams played in December, Fiorentina stomped Udinese 5-1. Fiorentina is fixing their form, while Udinese has been falling a part. I think Fiorentina will win outright, but I like this DNB line.
Fiorentina have become an absolute delight for those of us that like to bet on goals. Every since they finally picked up their first win they've been fighting for goals tooth and nail every single minute. We've now seen BTTS hit in eight consecutive matches, with seven of those matches also seeing over 2.5 goals. It doesn't matter who they play, they always tend to bring out goals from their opponents.
Hellas Verona's abysmal season continues as the club finds themselves falling closer and closer to a trip back to Serie B. Sitting 20th on the table, they have a lead record 14 losses already this season, just finding 15 points in 25 games. Sassuolo are doing the opposite right now, finding wins in three of their last five matches, and have been fantastic at home. Expecting a big win for Sassuolo.
Como continue to be the talk of the league as this recently promoted side are consinstently fighting and taking points off the biggest clubs in Italy. Under the tutelage of the legendary manager Cesc FÃ bregas, the club is currently in the top six of the table with a massive 11 wins and an almost league low four losses. Players like Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata continue to perform, and they'll be licking their lips at a chance to play a struggling, albeit, high scoring Fiorentina side. I'm expecting fireworks.
AC Milan are currently second on the Serie A table sitting eight points behind their Milan rivals. They good thing for AC Milan is they do have a game in hand, which means they still have a big chance here against a relegation side to cut that deficit to five. This AC Milan side are well rested, and are loaded with healthy and fit attacking Talent. Pisa are abysmal at home, and I expect Milan to go in there, take care of business, and win this 2-0.
Oh look, another even money line for goals in a Fiorentina match. Don't mind if I do! We took the over against Napoli, and Cagliari, and Bologna, so I see no reason not to take it once again against Torino. Fiorentina have now seen BTTS hit in their last six matches straight across all competitions. This is a team fighting from the depths of relegation, and the books haven't caught on to their shift in play style. Take BTTS and take over 2.5 goals for Fiorentina matches.
Last week I took over 2.5 goals in the Napoli v Fiorentina match, and my argument was that this team is missing too many key players, so we should see Fiorentina score. We saw Napoli pull off the 2-1 win, but man did they look shaky defensively. A better team than Fiorentina would have put in 3+ goals. While Genoa isn't much better than Fiorentina, I'm going to continue to bet on goals until Savic is back in the goal for Napoli. Genoa brought out goals in Lazio, so they can do it against anyone.
These two teams have played a combined 46 matches this season, and only in three of those matches has Pisa or Verona picked up a win. These are the two teams that are bottom of the table both sitting with just 14 points. The reason, I'm taking Pisa on the spread though, is because this team is obsessed with draws. They have a league most 11 draws over their 23 matches. When Pisa plays weak opposition, they play for high scoring draws. We've seen three of their last eight matches end 2-2, and I think we see a similar scoreline.
Different week but the same writeup from me! I see Pisa playing on the road, I'm betting on goals, regardless of their opponent. Pisa currently have the highest hit rate of over 2.5 goals when playing on the road in the league hitting in 73% of their away fixtures this season. Hellas Verona, have one of the highest hit rates when paying at home in 64% of their home fixtures. I love BTTS, and I love over 2.5 goals in this match. I'm shocked it's almost +140.
Roma are currently the best defensive side in Italy, and one of the best defensive sides in Europe. The club has conceded a mere 13 goals over their 22 matches, and have only scored 27 across those same games. This is a team that prides themselves on playing authentic Italian football, regardless of how not exciting that might be for the viewers. This team has now gone under 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine matches, and regularly find themselves in 2-0/1-0 matches. Udinese will press them, but I think they'll struggle to crack this Roma backline.
Roma have been a force to be reckoned with under the tutelage of Gian Piero Gasperini. This team that normally excels at home, has been doing that, but have also been showing a new level of perseverance during their travels. They currently have the second best away record in Serie A, only behind Inter Milan. Roma have beaten seven clubs on the road already this season, and with Udinese being better on the road than at home, I see Roma getting their 8th away victory.
Juventus made a decision in Champions League to rest the majority of their best players when fighting against Monaco. That match ended 0-0 and now people are saying "Juventus doesn't have it anymore" not realizing they didn't start Yildiz, Adzic, and David. Now, they'll be at full strength to continue their domestic dominance. This is the club that just a week ago embarrassed Napoli, and I have them winning this match by multiple goals against a Parma side who is struggling. Kenan Yildiz TSOA will be worth a play as always, and look for him to link up with Jonathan David.
Como at home for me in the past has been the kind of match where I like to bet on unders, however, the form of both sides right now is deadly. Nico Paz and Alvaro Morata have looked incredible for Como, as the duo are racking up goals left and right. Atalanta, to not be outdone, have Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere have also been having a fantastic season. While Como matches at home tend to be cagey, I'm backing goals with two of the best front lines in Serie A clashing under the lights.
Napoli were knocked out of Champions League in the last matchday of the group stage after conceding three goals to Chelsea at home. While this is a brutal loss in itself, it highlighted the ongoing issues with this squad. Their list of injuries is too signifcant for this team to hold their own defensively. Napoli can only win matches right now with their attack. Expect players like McTominay to push for goals, knowing they'll concede against almost anyone right now. I like BTTS and the over here.
Different week, same writeup! Pisa are at home, I bet under 2.5 goals. Nothing fancy here, no crazy, out of this world analysis. Pisa have hit over 2.5 goals in only 9% of their home matches and in 73% of their away matches. When you see Pisa playing at home, you bet the under, and the reverse on the road. Pisa can't score at home, and Sassuolo are in awful goal scoring form. I wouldn't be shocked if this ends 0-0.