Jon's Picks (9 Live)
The usual things are true in this matchup. Inter Milan are the much stronger side on paper. Inter Milan have a better defense and attack and Inter Milan still need points in the Scudetto Race. The main thing here, though, is that Inter Milan are going to be distracted by upcoming UCL play. They have this match against Udinese and just three days later, they are hosting the best team in Europe, Arsenal for an important UCL clash. Inter Milan will still play to win this, but will rotate their squad heavily to prep for UCL. I'm expecting a low scoring win for Inter, and 1.5 goals is too much.
Inter Milan 100% have the ability to win this matchup while scoring 3+ goals as a team. They have the ability to do that, but I don't believe that they will. A win is a win, and Inter Milan will be prioritizing their upcoming UCL match against Arsenal. I expect their best goal scorers Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram to both have limited playtime so they can rest. I'm expecting a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Inter Milan, while Udinese park and play for a low scoring draw.
Different week same bet! When Pisa plays at home, we fade them and take unders. When Pisa plays on the road, we bet on goals and for them to draw! Pisa still only have a single win at home this season, while also only having a single goal scored at home as well. While Pisa is falling a part at home, Atalanta is finding their their form having picked up five wins over their last six matches. Expect Pisa to struggle as always, and Atalanta to win 1-0 or 2-0!
While Pisa did see over 2.5 goals hit in their last home match against Como, that was their first over at home of the season, and it only went over off a 90+6 minute penalty kick from Como. Just because it missed last time doesn't mean that we stop betting it. Until Pisa change how they play in front of their home fans, I'm going to continue to bet unders on everyone of their home matches regardless of their opponents.
I don't fade Cesc Fabregas when his squad plays at home. They're just too good this season! Players like Nico Paz and Anastasios Douvikas are helping propel on the attack, but they've also been a fortress on defense. I would take this bet even if Milan didn't look awful it recent weeks. It does help that they have looked bad though. Milan are coming off back to back draws to Genoa and Fiorentina, both ending 1-1. Something is off with Milan right now, so give me this Como spread all day!
Hopefully y'all don't get tired of me doing this same play every other week. It's very simple. I see Como playing at home, I bet under 2.5 goals. I don't care if they're playing Milan, Atalanta, Fiorentina, or Udinese, I just take this bet. They have still only seen the over hit once all season long while playing at home, and that combined with AC Milan's wildly struggling attack, makes this a no brainer for me!