This match is the EPL equivalent of Arsenal v Wolves. The question isn't, is Bayern Munich going to win? The question is, how much does Bayern Munich want to win this match by? When tehse two teams faced back in 2024 at Allianz Arena, Bayern Munich beat them 8-1, and Mainz are in worse form now than they were back then. This is going to be an ugly one and there's no way around that. Mainz are also going to be exhausted after playing Lech Poznan in a UEFA Conference match on Thursday, while Bayern Munich is welcoming back big names like Alphonso Davies and Luis Davies. If this was -3.5 goals on the spread, I'd still have taken it....
Right out the gate, if you don't like the juice on this over add in either Bayern ML or a 1h goal to get it down. Bayern Munich is just Barcelona 2.0 right now. You see them play in any competition, you bet on goals. Bayern Munich is so much fun to watch because they don't need 90 minutes to cash an over. Their UCL match against Sporting it was 0-0 at halftime, the match ended 3-1. Before that, they beat Stuttgart 5-0, with four second half bets. The over is never dead when Bayern Munich is playing, and Mainz is in for a bad time.
Short answer to my question in the title? I have no idea and I heavily disagree with it haha. It's not very often we see the line set at over 2.5 goals in a match including Dortmund. Frankly, if this line was -200 I'd still have taken it, we might have the opportunity for a fun little ladder action here! The over has hit every time these teams have played each other since 2020. 10 times in a row we've seen the over. I know both clubs are going to be tired after UEFA competitions, but that shouldn't be moving the line this much. Take over 2.5 , and sprinkle the 3.5 as well!
Dortmund are having themselves a pretty typical season right now. They're third on the Bundesliga table and tenth on the Champions League table. They'll make a deep run in UCL and finish top three per the norm. Also per the norm, I expect them to use Freiburg as punching bag this weekend. For whatever reason, when these two teams play, Dortmund always seems to find incredible form. They've now beaten Freiburg 7 matches straight in head-to-head. Across those seven matches they've also scored a staggering 28 times. It doesn't matter if they're at home or on the road, this matchup is not kind to Freiburg.
We have ourselves another Bundesliga relegation scrap. 17th on the table St. Pauli host 16th on the table Heidenheim. Heidenheim currently sits three points above St. Pauli, making this an extremely important matchup with much as stake. The reason I call these teams a mirror matchup, is that hey both shifted their playstyles around the same time. These teams both specialized in low scoring games for the beginning of the season, but both sides have now seen the over 2.5 clear in their last three matches straight. Chaos is sure to ensue as both teams know the importance of leaving here with three points, and both will think they can do just that.
I can't think of a word aggressive enough to describe how much I disagree with this line. We have Union Berlin, who lost their last two matches to Wolfsburg and Heidenheim, taking on a Leipzig side who just beat Frankfurt SIX TO ZERO. This is a bad line. I'm going to bet Leipzig ML, Leipzig 1.5 TT, Leipzig 2.5 TT and probably more. I'm going to have fun with this match because +105 is just wrong. It's disrespecting one of the best teams in Germany, who are in form, and who are playing on fresh legs. Look at Harder, Baumgartner or Diomande goal scoring lines for even more bets!
Hamburg are going to be exhausted for this match against Werder Bremen. The hosts on Wednesday had to play in a Pokal Cup match against Holstein Kiel that went to penalties, and then proceeded to lose. They are continuing to to struggle this season in league play and the bonus matches are only making things harder for this squad. Werder Bremen are in better form, have done decent this season on the road, and most importantly have an extra three days rest over their opponents, which should translate into at least a point.
Leipzig have been quietly having one hell of a season so far. They are currently sitting second on the Bundesliga table and every matchday their new signings are looking to be more and more in form. Most noticeably so far about this club, is the fact that they have a perfect 5-0-0 record when playing at home this season. They've outscored their opponents in those matches 12-3. While they have conceded in three of them, their offense is so good that hasn't mattered. I'm expecting goals in this match, but more than that I expect Leipzig to continue their streak.
There are two clubs that I bet the over on every time I see them play. The first is Barcelona, and the second is Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich have amassed a massive 44 goals from their opening 12 Bundesliga matches, and their defense has been struggling lately as well. Their last five matches have all covered over 3.5 goals, and had matches with five and eight goals as well. Stuttgart's Deniz Undav knows that all eyes will be on him to get things done for Stuttgart. I think both teams score, but even if they don't, Bayern can cover this by themselves.
Heidenheim managed to eek out an important win against Union Berlin last matchday, however, that doesn't mean that they are "back". Heidenheim still has the least goals scored in the Bundesliga, and are going to struggle at home against a strong attacking Freiburg side who is cleaning things up at both ends of the pitch. Freiburg has only lost one of their last eight matches, which was at the hands of Bayern Munich. This is a team fighting for a European spot, and I expect them to handle a weak opponent easily.
Mainz continue trudging through a horrendous season. They are the only team in Bundesliga play who have just a single win over their opening 12 matches. They continue to put on display a toothless attack, and defensively are averaging just under 2 goals conceded per match. While Mainz are falling apart at the seems, Gladbach have picked up 10 points from their last four matches, and tend to do very very well when playing against weaker opposition. Even with Mainz maintaining homefield advantage, Gladbach sprinkle on the ML, or a look at DNB are the way to go for this one.
Frankfurt did in fact get rolled over this past week in UCL play by Atalanta, however, outside of that one hiccup they've been a fierce attacking side when playing at home. Then you have Wolfsburg, who have been scoring, but that doesn't really matter since everyone seems to be capable of racking up goals on them. They have scored in each of their last three matches, and still lost all three of them. They are also shambolic on the road. Frankfurt need a bounce back on a weak opponent, and they got just that.
Yeah I'm not buying this "Hamburger at home" give them a huge advantage nonsense. We're getting this number because they pulled off a miracle draw against Dortmund earlier this month, and now people are associating that with home field domination. Hamburg have the worst offense in all of Bundesliga. They've scored nine goals in 11 matches, and are taking on a Stuttgart side who is averaging just under two goals scored per game. Hamburg will sit back, play for a draw, and get beaten up by Stuttgart's high line. This might be low scoring , but plus odds is silly.
Bayern Munich, for the first time all season, have lost a match. Not only did they lose to Arsenal in UCL play, they were frankly, embarrassed. The Gunners dominated every area of the pitch, shut down Kane and Olise, and won 3-1, and frankly, they could have won by more. Now, St. Pauli will endure the wrath of a ticked off Vincent Kompany who will want to put that loss in the rear view mirror as soon as possible. St Pauli have only scored once in their last six Bundesliga matches. I'm expecting a stomp at Allianz Arena.
Over the last five weeks of Bundesliga play, no team has picked up more points than Hoffenheim. They'll be understandably frustrated after drawing to Mainz 1-1 last matchday, but a big three points up for grabs at home is the perfect spot for a bounce back. A combination of Hoffenheim's impressive home form over the last month combined with Augsburg's poor away form, makes me think the hosts will continue their winning ways. I don't think it'll come easy, but a 2-1 final score sounds about right to me.