Jon's Picks (1 Live)
Dortmund are coming off a couple of rough matches and now everyone is freaking out. I'm not freaking out at all. Dortmund had to play a grueling three matches against Atalanta, Bayern Munich and Leipzig. While they didn't win any of those three matches, they still put up good fights, especially in the Bundesliga, finding 2 goals against Leipzig and Bayern. Koln are not a good enough side to stop Dortmund, even a rotated Dortmund squad from winning. I'm shocked this isn't -200.
Augsburg changes as a club, after they won the Bavarian Derby against Bayern Munich back in January. This team was struggling to put together any kind of positive result, but after that win, they've been different. They've now won five of their last six matches, and have scored 2+ goals in all five of those matches. While Leipzig on paper is the better team, I don't want to fade momentum that the visitors have going right now.
Mainz and Hamburg are both in the best form they've been in all season long. Mainz have done amazing since their new manger in December, while Hamburg are undefeated in their last five matches. Mainz main goal is to avoid relegation while Hamburg is probably too far out of the top six, abut will look to continue their form. Coming off a 3-2 win over Union Berlin, I like Hamburg to score goals, but their defense will struggle against a high-attacking Mainz side.
Hoffenheim enter this match coming off their worst loss of the season at the hands of the Bavarian giants, Bayern Munich. They'll want to put that loss behind them as quickly as possible, and they have the chance to do that while playing at home. Hoffenheim remain one of the strongest home clubs in Germany, as they have picked up seven wins and 21 points from their 10 home matches this season. Freiburg are a good side, but struggle on the road, and while they're probably score here, their defense will struggle against the hosts.
Bayern Munich had a rare blip in form over a two week period which saw them lose to Augsburg and draw to Hamburg. They apparently immeidately corrected that form by smacking down one of the best teams in Germany, Hoffenheim, 5-1. Now the team has confidence and momentum on their side as they take on an extremely out of form Werder team. These two teams met four times over the last two season, and Bayern Munich has outscored them 13-0 over those games. Expect another clinical win for the visitors.
Mainz made the fantastic decision to pick up new manager Urs Fischer back in December. Since the new acquisition, they've pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, and Mainz have won four of their last five matches. I expect that streak to come to an end with a travel to the Yellow Wall. Dortmund remain the only team in Bundesliga play who haven't lost at home, and they've picked up six clean sheets at home on top of that. Mainz are getting better, but this is too big of a task to ask from Urs' squad.
I'm a Bayern Munich fan, so part of me really hopes I miss this bet. The part of me that loves money, thinks this is the right way to play this. Bayern Munich do this every season, they struggle for a like a month without warning. They are coming off back to back poor performances that saw them drop points to Augsburg and Hamburg. They're now playing a Hoffenheim team who are the most in form team in Germany. I think Bayern could still win, but 1.5 goals is wild for how good Hoffenheim have been in 2026, and I wouldn't be shocked to see another draw.
While Bayern Munich are in a bit of a funk right now, even when losing and drawing they've been good for goals. Bayern Munich's 20 matches this season have seen 92 goals. Hoffenheim, while much less than that, have the second best offense with 43 scored in 20 matches. We are going to have Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Luis Diaz, Lennert Karl, and Andrej Kramaric all on the pitch at the same time. I'm going to ladder goals in this one, but I have to take that 3.5 line.
I don't mind playing -130 for a single bet, but I know that's not for everyone, so I wanted to provide an alternative. I think Dortmund win this match by multiple goals. I'm looking at a 3-1 win for the Black and Yellow. Dortmund offense is just too strong right now, and their motivation to succeed after watching league rivals drop points in back-to-back games should only help them further. I like the Asian-handicap for partial coverage if you don't want to take the ML outright. Expect Wolfsburg to crumble even at home against the better side.
I didn't take the over 3.5 in Dortmunds last game, only to watch them play to a thrilling 3-2 win over Heidenheim. Dortmund are now playing one of the only teams with a defense as bad as Heidenheim in Wolfsburg, and the line is set to 2.5 goals. I'm going to bet the over 2.5 here and take over 3.5 as well. Dortmund are dominating domestically right now and have this break before the next UCL round. I expect them to score three by themselves, against a Wolfsburg team who has let 42 in already this season.
Dortmund just a couple weeks ago were 10 points behind Bayern Munich on the table and winning the league seemed entirely out of reach. Then Bayern Munich dropped points in back to back matches, losing to Augsburg and drawing to Hamburg. There's something wrong in the Bavarian camp, and Dortmund has to take advantage of that. Dortmund will continue playing their best starting XI and picking up crucial points in the title race. Losing to Wolfsburg isn't an option, expect a multi-goal win for Dortmund.
Heidenheim are dead last on the Bundesliga table and have only picked up a poultry 13 points over their first 20 Bundesliga matches. This is the team that barely avoided relegation last season, and they seem to have gotten worse. I will say, while they have been poor all season long, they're finally starting to show a little passion in their play. They managed to go up 2-1 on Dortmund in the last matchday, and even though they lost 2-3, at least they're pressing! This game is going to be scrappy as all get, but I do think we see goals as both teams push for desperate points.
Just two weeks ago we were talking about Augsburg in terms of the relegation battle. This was a club that many people, myself included, had counted out. Their poor attack and lack-luster defense had people thinking a return to 2. Bundesliga could be in their cards. Then the Bayern Munich game happened. Augsburg went to Allianz Arena, and took down the Bavarian giants 2-1. After that, they hosted St. Pauli, and did the same. They might not be the best, but don't bet against this kind of momentum.
The bane of my existence, Augsburg will take the pitch once again as they travel to take on a Mainz side who has won three of their last four matches. We have two really poor teams who in the last month, have completely turned things around. Augsburg's five matches in January have ended 4-0, 1-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-2. They're are starting to pivot to a higher line and pressing for goals knowing their defense can't keep cleansheet. Mainz is also doing the same. I'm going for a high scoring 2-2 draw in this one.