Matt's Picks (1 Live)
I feel bad for the Iranian players and coaches because they are getting caught up in all this stuff and at such a disadvantage in this tournament with some banned from coming over and also having to fly back and forth from Mexico -- where they had to move camp from the USA. I'm certainly not rooting for the Iranians, but sports and politics should not overlap in my humble opinion (easy to say as I don't care at all about politics). They are without two key guys in forward Sardar Azmoun and winger Ali Gholizadeh. The latter is hurt and the former left off the squad for reasons that have nothing to do with soccer. Azmoun has scored 57 goals in 91 international matches.
This is the first match of the tournament with a total of 1.5 and that's because Ecuador is a stellar defensive club -- a whopping 13 clean sheets in qualifying. Defenders Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho recently squared off in the Champions League final, and Moisés Caicedo is considered one of the top defensive midfielders in Europe (plays for Chelsea). I definitely came here looking to play Under 2.5 but since that's not an option, will go this route. Ecuador is ranked nine spots higher by FIFA. Ivory Coast is quite talented led by Yan Diomande and might make noise in 2030 (Morocco, Portugal, and Spain host) as the youngest team in this field. It has never beaten a South American team in the WC.
There are two countries I root for every World Cup other than the USA: The Netherlands and England. Not really sure why the Dutch as I'm only partly that; always dug their bright orange unis, I suppose ... and I grew up near Holland, Mich. Oranje are ranked 8th in the world -- they were dominant in qualifying, finishing atop UEFA Group G -- and Japan 18th. The Samurai Blue are down two key players due to injury in winger Kaoru Mitoma and midfielder Takumi Minamino. Would not touch this number on Holland to win from Dallas but at Draw No Bet, sure.
Should be a pretty fun atmosphere Friday in Toronto in the first-ever men's World Cup game in Canada, and the hosts are probably the best club in a weak Group B. The Canadians are ranked 30th in the world and unbeaten in eight straight. Some are calling this perhaps the country's best-ever team, which is led by Alphonso Davies (plays for Bayern Munich). But he will miss at least the opener due to injury, and that was my thinking on the total whereas I'd play Canada on the side otherwise. Davies has earned 58 international caps for Canada, netting 15 goals and 18 assists. Bosnia & Herzegovina is ranked 64th in the world and easily a bottom 10 club in the tournament.
Can't really sleep for some reason so may as well make some bad World Cup decisions. This is obviously a big number, but I give myself a pass on such via Draw No Bet -- and think should be substantially higher -- as I've said because I consider it two wagers in one (i.e. there's only one way in three I lose). I truly cannot imagine that we lose the WC opener on home soil but basically all I know about Paraguay is that it has the world's largest navy for a landlocked nation. I don't know why I know that. Not really sure the point (guess a bunch of rivers) but OK. The US is ranked 24 spots higher via FIFA.
The World Cup starts one week from today in Mexico, and this is the last -1 on our board for El Tri (-1.25 or -1.5) so better grab it now. Mexico is the favorite to win Group A because the assumption is that it will win this match at Estadio Azteca. Then it could probably draw the next two and be fine. Mexico is ranked 15th in the world and South Africa 60th -- the visitors won't be used to the altitude in Mexico City, a huge edge for the hosts. Mexico is unbeaten in 2026, allowing just one goal in six total matches. I considered Under 2.5 goals.
It was a fun domestic/Champions League season, and now my first-ever World Cup play at SL. Didn't care much about soccer four years ago, but it definitely has grown on me. This is on the opening day from Mexico with Korea ranked 25th in the world and Czechia 41st. The Koreans were the only team to get through Asian qualifying unbeaten, while the Czechs had to get through two playoff matches. Korea reached the Round of 16 at Qatar 2022 and has arguably the best player in this match in captain and legendary player Son Heung-Min in likely his final WC. The winner of this game, if there is one, would be in the driver's seat for second place in Group A behind Mexico.
Do I dare go under 2.5 goals (-155) with the likes of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe sharing the same pitch -- yep, I said pitch. Don't test my soccer vocab!! If this were a group stage match or friendly, etc., then I probably wouldn't go under. But look at the history of World Cup Finals and they are usually very low scoring as teams play defensively and not to lose. The 2018 Final won by France saw six goals but none of the previous four had more than two.
Probably fair to say this will be my last soccer play until we host (along with Canada and Mexico) the 2026 World Cup when it expands to 48 teams -- because, you know, this tournament is incomplete without the likes of Liechtenstein and Montserrat. This story seems to set up perfectly for Lionel Messi to add the one thing missing to his legendary resume in his final major international tournament. La Albiceleste are healthy and on an extra day of rest, while apparently some sort of virus is raging on Les Bleus, and there's a reason it's so hard to repeat at a World Cup.
The USA scored just twice during the group stage and its best player, Christian Pulisic, isn't 100 percent -- assuming he even plays. Meanwhile, American keeper Matt Turner kept two clean sheets. Definitely the first time I have used the term "clean sheets" in this space and most likely the last. The Oranje allowed just one goal during the group stage. This seems too easy -- probably why the Under is juiced to -160.
I think it's crazy that any World Cup team other than maybe Gibraltar (are they in this?) is getting 1.5 goals at only -155. Yes, Brazil is the No. 1 team in the world but Serbia is No. 21. Many of Serbia’s players were on the team that beat Brazil to win the under-20 World Cup trophy in 2015 and beat France in the final of the under-19 European Championship final two years earlier. The Serbs won their qualifying group over Portugal. That's the extent of my soccer knowledge.
Am I a soccer expert? Buckets or Brandt or Jimmy H I am not but this is the only time I care about the sport and I'm gonna watch this so let's put some money down. Don't most soccer games end like 1-0 or 1-1? There is my advice. I'll take my chances.