Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Pretty fair price on Draw No Bet. They are right next to each other in La Liga, not too far from the relegation zone. Alaves has managed just eight points in 13 league away matches and is winless in its past five in all competitions. Valencia enters having won two of three. It just hasn't won in this series since August 2021. Overdue then. The visitors have two defenders suspended.
Osasuna is certainly the more in form club now but has accumulated only eight points from 12 La Liga away games. Elche is slumping but should be duly motivated as it could fall into the relegation zone this weekend if lose this match and other results go against Los Franjiverdes. They have the seventh-best home record this season with 20 total points accumulated. Overall, Elche is third in the league in average possession at 58.5%. The sides drew 1-1 in late September. All we want.
Is it me, or does Osasuna sound like a Neil Diamond song? "Sweet Osasuna" ... bamp, bamp bamp ... (only thing I like about the Red Sox) shockingly, I enjoyed Song Sung Blue and I'm not really into music-based movies -- although Almost Famous is Top 10 all-time. I don't consider that about music really just about the band. I see Buckets is on this. I like it anyways. Los Rojillos (the Little Reds), which make me want a taco (soft shell obviously), are unbeaten in the past three.
Will throw a half down at this cheap price for Over 1.5. Girona is tied for the La Liga lead with 34 goals allowed despite having played one match fewer than most of the rest of the clubs. Four of Getafe's past five have seen at least two total goals scored. When these clubs played on Halloween, Getafe won 2-1 even though it was scoreless in the 70th minute. Our model has 2.6 for this one.
Interesting as two of our books list Sevilla at -0.5 but BetRivers is giving me +0.25. I'm all about outlier numbers, so I'll take it. Right on deadline so kinda short and sweet here. Only three points separate the sides in the La Liga table.
Espanyol, fifth in the La Liga table, has pretty much everyone available -- midfielder Pol Lozano was suspended last game but is back. Girona, sitting 13th, is missing several guys due to injury or suspension. It has just one league road win and has allowed a league-high 34 goals (jminus-16 differential). It has allowed at least one goal in 11 straight away. Really three points the home side needs to get for next season's Champions League hopes. The sides played to a scoreless draw in September with Espanyol having 20 shot attempts and Girona 12.
Always find it interesting when a home team that is higher in the table gets the +5 against a lower-table visitor. That's the case in this La Liga matchup. Getafe midfielder Mario Martin is available after being subbed out injured the last game. Los Azulones, who are struggling, are unbeaten in the past three in this series. La Real, meanwhile, has not been victorious in the league since Nov. 22 and has just one away victory overall.
Villareal appears to have some major player availability (I hate that term but it's apt) issues either due to injury or suspension. I mean, I took Spanish in high school and two years of college so I think I understand what is happening. But I also may have just been reading a recipe for chili con carne. Haven't spoken Espanol in a while. Me llamo Mateo. And now I want chili con carne dang it.
Atletico Madrid is higher in the La Liga table but dealing with several absences. Athletic Club has covered this number in three straight if we throw out matches vs. powerhouses Barcelona and Real Madrid. Athletic has 13 points from eight home league games, while Atletico has scored just eight total goals in seven away domestic trips. Wish O/U 3.5 was offered as I'd certainly go Under but no dice.
This is basically a pick'em; some of our books are giving the +0.5 to the visitors but a couple to the home side and that's what I want even at this price. Elche sits ninth in the La Liga table and is healthy. Real Sociedad is 14th and has a handful of knocks. In Wednesday’s training session, the absence of two key players stood out: Ander Barrenetxea and Arsen Zakharyan. The former is out and the latter -- not about to try and type either of those last names -- in doubt. Thus, Elche should have a good shot to end a six-game skid in the series, but we only care about a draw. Los Franjiverdes are yet to lose on home soil this season.
Seems a very fair price on Getafe at home on Friday considering it sits 10th in the La Liga table with 14 points and Girona is dead last with just seven points, one win, a minus-7 goal differential, has allowed a league-worst 22 goals and with a few injury concerns. Other than that ... The hosts just scored 11 on Tuesday in trashing something called Inter de Valdemoro in the Copa del Rey. Getafe has won three of the past five in this series and has just one home league loss this season, coming to powerhouse Real Madrid and only by a goal.
Went back to the home dog angle today in soccer and cashed immediately from the Premier League. So we'll do it again Monday from La Liga, where these teams are tied in the table at 16 points. Following last Tuesday’s 4-0 loss at Arsenal in the Champions League, Atleti is now winless (some draws) in the past six away overall. It hasn't won on the road in this series in more than three years. Real Betis, without the injured Isco (almost typed Izzo as in Tom), plays its first home fixture since September, when it beat Osasuna 2-0. Los Verdiblancos (my high school Spanish is telling me the Green and Whites) haven't lost a domestic match anywhere since Aug. 31.
This is funny to me as I was asking myself the other day: "Self, will we get a total of 1.5 in soccer?" Kinda told myself I'd have to play something on the Over if so. There has been exactly two goals scored in each of the past four in this La Liga series. Just one Getafe match this season has seen less than two total goals scored. Athletic Club has been involved in matches with at least three total goals in three of its past four. Our model has this at 2.2 goals.
Will roll our Sunday Getafe money into this Monday La Liga matchup. That is a sentence I never expected to think much less broadcast not even a year ago. Pretty lucky on Getafe considering they had two red cards. Alaves sits 12th in the table with 11 points but is plus-1 in goal differential. Valencia sits 16th with eight points and a minus-4 GD. It is winless in the past four away. Forward Toni Martinez was a fitness question for the hosts but will play. He's second on the team with two goals. Two of Alaves' three victories this term have come at home. It also won this last matchup 1-0 at home in May and is unbeaten in the past five meetings (one draw).