The LA Dodgers did what they typically do in game two and that was bounce back from a loss. They are now 15-2 over their last seventeen games, making the side a tough assessment from a price stand point in game three. I went to the prop market where Mookie Betts has had a very quiet postseason since the Phillies series. He has cleared his total bases just once over the last seven games. Yet, two of his three hits against Max Scherzer have been extra base hits. Look for an early hit from Betts possibly a double, and a single later in the game. Take his total bases over for half a unit.
Recency bias can be hard to overlook in a crucial game seven to decide who goes to the World Series. The Toronto Blue Jays have captured that with winning three out of the past four games over Seattle. In fact they had game five in their grasp as well before a five run eighth inning from the Mariners. The turn of events was sparked in game three by Shane Bieber but look for this Mariners team to respond as they did in the ALDS against Detroit in game five. Seattle heads to the World Series.
The LA Dodgers picked up a pivotal game one NLCS victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night. Milwaukee has now lost three of its last four playoff games, and has scored three runs or less in all. That could be a big issue tonight with Freddy Peralta on the mound, as he has given up eight home runs over his last six starts. As we know playoff baseball is all about the now, and expect the Dodgers who lost all six regular season games against Milwaukee to go up 2-0 in the series. Take LA.
The top two pitchers in MLB in terms of wins are on the mound today for game one with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet. Pressure is on Fried to uphold the Yankees current eight game win streak. A player I expect to give Fried and the Yankees bullpen problems is Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela has had a hit in eight out of his last nine games, with four doubles. Take Rafaela over on his total bases prop.
The Houston Astros playoff chances continue to slip as they have lost five straight games. The Athletics themselves have defeated Houston in seven straight matchups. This included JT Ginn’s sharp performance on July 27th when he went six innings and allowed three hits and no runs. Take the home team in the Athletics to win their eighth straight over Houston.
The Milwaukee Brewers fell short last night in extra innings against the Padres. It marked their second consecutive loss, as they remain one game away from tying the franchise record in wins. During this season they have been stout at avoiding three game losing streaks, which has happened only twice since May 11th. Grab the Brewers tonight over the Padres.
We’ve seen the Houston Astros halt the momentum of the Texas Rangers in their current series, winning the first two matchups. Wednesday, with ace Jacob Degrom on the mound look for the tables to turn. Degrom has allowed three runs or less in all three starts this season against the Astros, including on September 6th when the Rangers gave him no run support. Take Texas as Degrom gets his thirteenth win of the season.
The New York Mets are coming off another loss yesterday to the Philadelphia Phillies. Now they will have to face a Texas Rangers team that has had an off day, and is one of the hottest teams in baseball 14-4 over their last 18 games. The market has over reacted in my opinion with the Rangers coming off a sweep over the best team in baseball in Milwaukee. Take the Mets who even amidst their struggles have remained consistent at home where they are 45-27 on the season.
An over trend has been strong as of late with Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios on the mound. As the over has hit in five out of his last six starts, with no less than thirteen runs total scored. There’s an elevated concern as well with both bullpens after yesterday’s extra inning matchup, and the Astros using several of their top arms. Take the over that may take three to four innings before the scoring gets going.
This evening look for a continuation of runs at the plate between the Minnesota Twins and LA Angels, that Monday had fifteen combined runs. On the season the Twins are undefeated against the Angels with a 4-0 record, and more importantly have scored over five runs in all matchups. This includes Kyle Hendricks shortest and worst start of the season in terms of runs allowed. On April 25th, Hendricks gave up seven runs in just three innings of duty. Take the over.
The Seattle Mariners probably did not want their series to end against the Atlanta Braves. Over their last twelve innings they scored twenty six runs. While that was a huge outburst of production at the plate, it doesn’t take away that the Mariners were 1-6 their prior seven games. Look for Bryan Woo to do his part, and Miles Mikolas to do enough to keep the Mariners at bay. Take the under.
September baseball we typically see lineups changing as teams try and make their final push. For Kansas City and Cleveland that fits right in line with two teams pushing for a Wild Card spot. Expect the Guardians to not be as lenient with Slade Cecconi if he continues his pattern of giving up high runs, and for Ryan Bergert to extend his streak of two runs or less allowed. Take the under.
The Seattle Mariners took another bad loss yesterday as they are now 1-6 on their current road trip. I believe the bats respond today, even against Hurston Waldrep whose been nearly flawless in six August starts. He did allow four walks and his first home run of the season in his last start against Philadelphia. Opposite Bryce Miller has seen nine or more runs scored in six out of his last seven starts. Grab the over.
The LA Dodgers lost in walk off fashion Friday to the Orioles, which marked their fourth straight loss. After scoring just one run they will now see arguably the sharpest pitcher in MLB in Trevor Rogers. Rogers has seen his Orioles team win ten out of his last twelve starts, with the two losses being when the Orioles did not score a run. This is the spot for the Dodgers to break out of their slump, and also end Rogers twelve game streak of allowing two runs or less. Take the Dodgers.
The Tampa Bay Rays have won an MLB best seven straight games, and will have a bullpen game tonight with Griffin Jax as the opener. After game one went under yesterday with a 4-2 result, I’m expecting more of the same tonight. Gavin Williams has been one of the best under pitchers as of late, as the under have cashed in six out of his last seven starts. Competitive game, where the side will be up in the air, but the total delivers on the under.