No running back has gone for more than 37 yards (RJ Harvey) in the playoffs against the New England defense. Although Walker is the most explosive RB they have yet faced and will have a bell-cow workload, we doubt he'll reach this number as we anticipate a competitive game script and a defensive effort that will limit Walker's numbers.
Maye has crushed this number in two of three playoff games and his rushing upside is always a threat for the Patriots offense. But we expect the Seattle defense to keep him in check and also feel that this line is a bit trappy. This particular prop was the first to see major movement and we're sensing it goes the way of the steam on the Jarrett Stidham passing prop 2 weeks ago. That is, under with room to spare.
Hollins has cleared this number in 6 of his last 7 games played. He has only had one playoff appearance because of injuries, but he's proven when healthy to be a reliable and preferred weapon for Drake Maye in the passing game. We see the veteran WR clearing this number with ease.
These neutral-site odds suggest the game would be about -7.5 in Seattle, which no doubt would feel disrespectful to the Patriots. But many bettors are laying this number as if they are reading it out of a box score. The Seahawks are the better team, but the Patriots didn't arrive in the Super Bowl by accident. We believe the outcome lands on an early key number and find value in the points.
The Jayhawks have been rolling of late, with 5 straight wins behind a blowout of then-undefeated Iowa State. But they barely held on Saturday against BYU amid a mysterious from start Darryn Peterson. This is a strong bounce-back spot for a Red Raiders club coming off an upset loss at UCF following 5 straight wins.
Last week, the Bills overcame atrocious officiating (the Cooks' catch overturn/0:00 FG attempt could have been an outcome-altering sequence) to beat a Jags team that was arguably playing better than the Broncos were to end the regular season. Buffalo should be able to get back to the run game and also faces a less formidable rushing attack from Denver than it did against Jacksonville. We've seen similar line movement and will again back a Bills team that many observers are underestimating.
This is a value-heavy ML price on the Texans, whose stifling defense could easily lead them to the AFC title game. The Steelers' rollercoaster season ended with a wild and fortunate finish against the rival Ravens, sending their once-iconic coach to the unemployment line, a fate Mike Tomlin might have faced if the roles were reversed. It's fair to say Pittsburgh played slightly above expectation this season, but its season will end in familiar fashion with a seventh consecutive playoff defeat.
The red-hot Jags have become such a trendy wildcard weekend play that now one major book has officially flipped the spread and we'll bite on Buffalo with this move. Although the Bills haven't shown the dominance that made them the pre-season Super Bowl favorite, they still fell just one win short of their over/win total (12.5) and they're far from the only flawed playoff team. With Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson out of the way, Josh Allen and friends need to take advantage and this is a winnable matchup.
The Packers stumbled down the stretch amid injury issues to QB Jordan Love, RB Josh Jacobs and top defender Micah Parsons. With the exception of Parsons, who is out for the season, they will be close to full strength for the first time in about a month. The Bears have made a remarkable turnaround in their first year under Ben Johnson, but we believe the postseason experience of Love and friends will make a difference as Green Bay manages a hard-fought victory.
Last week, the Seahawks had a bit of a letdown performance against the desperate Colts in what might have been a look-ahead spot to this game. The Rams recovered from a slow start to topple the Lions, but we expect the roles to be reversed Thursday. Sam Darnold's 4 turnovers were the key factor in a 21-19 loss in their first meeting. We expect an inspired performance from the Seattle side against a Los Angeles team that will be shorthanded without WR Davante Adams.
We've been burned a couple times this years by the Bears via bad beat, including their pick-6 on the final play against Virginia when they appeared to have the cover (+6) locked up. But their road upset of Louisville (+20) shows the ceiling of this team and, if a reasonable version of this clubs shows up Saturday, it should have stubborn but undermanned Stanford outclassed by a decent margin.
Last year, the Bears surged down the stretch to win their final 6 games while looking like one of the better teams in the country in the process. This year's club, felled by a subpar defense, is still seeking to become bowl eligible. But we like this spot for the Bears against an Arizona club in dangerous of a letdown spot off its big road upset of Cincinnati.
We're compelled to take the points in this matchup of erratic ACC clubs battling to become bowl eligible. Neither team is as good nor as bad as it has looked at times. That said, this sets up for a strong Wolfpack performance following their blowout loss at Miami last week.
We expect the talented but erratic Blue Devils to become bowl eligible Saturday at the expense of a Virginia club that has performed above expectation but has gotten plenty of breaks along the way. The Cavaliers fell to a mediocre Wake Forest team last week and we see another loss coming by a TD+ against Duke.
The Wolf Pack put up a strong defensive effort in their last outing, but couldn't overcome a five-turnover outing from its stagnant offense. The Aggies allow their share of offensive production but they also score at a decent clip and we can't see Nevada keeping pace.