This looks a massive overreaction in the marketplace to last week's results...or, result. The blowout loss to Indiana has seemingly devalued Illinois, ranked in the top ten prior, and two weeks ago, suggesting this price vs. USC would be Illini +7 might seem a bit ludicrous. After all, SC hasn't covered spreads the past two weeks, either (although yet to lose a game outright), and the only road game their last six the Trojans have covered came across town in a nailbiter at UCLA last November. Remember, the Trojans have had problems on the Big Ten road, especially vs. line of scrimmage" teams like Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland, all winners over the Trojans when hosting them last season. Play Illinois

The situation seemed dire immediately after Illinois' blowout loss to Indiana, with six of the team's DBs either injured or expelled for targeting. Most appear to have recovered -- a notable exception being all-leaguer Xavier Scott -- and Jaheim Scott is poised to return after bypassing the first four games. Humiliation, which the Illini suffered in droves against Indiana, can serve as a motivator for a solid team. USC deals with a noon kickoff (9 a.m. PT) after teeing off at 8 p.m. PT (11 ET) last Saturday. Coach Lincoln Riley's public complaints over the early start established an excuse should the Trojans stumble.

First of all, let's throw out the 63 points Illinois gave up at Indiana last week. I'm willing to call that a fluke. Dating back to last season, USC home games are averaging more than 67 combined points. On the road, their average is 46. I'm once again playing the home / road splits and will sprinkle a little on the Illinois bounceback as well. Illinois 28, USC 24.