We like Kansas at home, as they are 5-2 ATS at home since last season. Despite losing to Missouri, putting up 31 points on the road in that game was impressive in our model. The model likes Cincy QB Brendan Sorsby, but we aren't bought in to Cincinnati's improvements on defense quite yet.

Our model has Kansas winning by double digits, while Sagarin has KU a touchdown better and Massey four points. The Jayhawks have been dominant at home thus far in outscoring their three opponents 118-24. Jadon Daniels' 12 TD passes are among the national leaders. He is 1-of-7 FBS quarterbacks to throw 3 or more touchdowns in at least three games this season. Cincinnati plays its first true road game and is 2-6 SU & ATS in its past eight overall. It might cover 4.5 on Saturday but I don't think wins barring a bunch of KU turnovers/mistakes.