I've played Over 2.5 runs in baseball and goals in hockey before but never O 2.5 points in a football game. Yes, we have NCAA team totals now, and when I saw this it stopped me in my tracks just giggling. Could Iowa blank UMass? Sure. But for one thing, it's a letdown game off the Iowa State loss. And the Hawkeyes have a short Week 3 ahead of the Big Ten opener on Friday, Sept. 19 at Rutgers. You are telling me that the Minutemen can't kick a dang field goal then? Maybe a safety and a rouge? UMass kicker Derek Morris is 3-for-4 on field goals with a long of 53 so far. Our model has UMass with 12 points.

Iowa hasn't scored more than 42 points since 2021 so I'll assume they won't this week either. In that case, all I'm banking on is a touchdown and extra point by UMass. Doesn't seem like much to ask even from a bad team, right? Iowa 35, UMass 7.