Significant step up Arizona State, which will rely on Cam Skattebo against one of the nation's best run-stopping units. Like in Penn State's games, there's a talent gulf here. Kenny Dillingham is great, but even with extra prep, its tough to see the Sun Devils having consistent success. Quinn Ewers has been perhaps the most heavily criticized player in these playoffs, but he has a chance to write his wrongs against a beatable secondary with Isaiah Bond back as a primary pass catcher. ASU ranked near last in the FBS at rushing the passer, and UT has the talent to hit one explosive play after another. The Longhorns just beat a far better passing team by 14 and have won 11 games by double digits.

Winners of their last six, Arizona State has been a great story this season. This just seems like to many points for the Longhorns to be laying. Four of Texas’ last seven games have been decided by 13 points, or less. The Sun Devils defense has been holding opponents to 16.3 points over their last three games as well.

It became harder and harder to overlook ASU down the stretch as the Sun Devils won and covered their last six. Cam Skattebo (1568 YR, 22 TDs) lit the fuse, but QB Sam Leavitt's emergence was no less important, tossing 16 TD passes with just one pick across the last six games. Too often we saw Texas play to the level of the opposition this season, and thought the Horns were fortunate to get the spread cover in the opening round vs. Clemson. Moreover, QB Quinn Ewers has been dealing with an ankle and playing at a bit less than 100%. Atlanta also not kind to Texas in the SEC title game, where Georgia beat the Horns days ago. Play ASU (Peach Bowl)

I put ASU in the same category as SMU and Clemson but the difference here is that Texas is not at home and that's where my edge might be with Arizona State in this game. It's also nice knowing that they covered almost every game they played. They were 11-2 ATS on the season. And they have the biggest baddest bowling ball of a running back in college football in Cam Skattebo who ran for over 1,500 yards and had 19 touchdowns. Texas is in the first year of SEC play but I'm not impressed with their schedule and they lost to the best team Georgia twice. Arizona State gives them a battle, covers.

When the Sun Devils started 6-1, I thought they were performing well above expectation but also caught more than their share of breaks and were a major regression candidate down the stretch. Turns out, they were just getting started. They closed out the season with six consecutive victories , including the destruction of a solid Iowa State club for the Big 12 title after fetching preseason odds of 125/1 to do so. The Longhorns are probably in for a little more resistance than they have bargained for following their 38-24 first-round win over Clemson. We’d love to grab the key number of +14 in this spot but can’t resist taking the points with a viable underdog.

I don't believe that ASU has the athletes to compete with Texas for a full 60 minute game. The Longhorns boast the nation's fourth best rushing defense (104.5 yards per game) and should focus on slowing the Sun Devils' star RB, Cam Skattebo. If that happens, there is a very little chance that QB Sam Leavitt can beat Texas on his own against the nation's second ranked passing defense (156.9 YPG). Even with a late score to make us sweat, I don't see this one going over in the Peach Bowl. Texas 30, ASU 17.

This is a terrible matchup for the Sun Devils. Unlike Clemson, which had a passing game that could move the ball on Texas, Arizona State relies on running it. But the Longhorns have a nasty and sure-tackling defense that allows just 104.2 rushing yards per game (10th in the country). The 13 teams the Sun Devils have faced this season have an average total defense rank of 76.6; Texas is No. 3. And the Longhorns won't have to keep an eye on No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson, who's out for the season. Georgia has showed that the way to beat Texas is to get pressure on quarterback Quinn Ewers, but the Sun Devils rank 100th in the country in sacks per game (1.62). Longhorns roll.