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The 2024-25 national champion may come out of this with Oregon looking to continue its undefeated season and Ohio State seeking payback from what should've been (but wasn't) the only team to beat it. Momentum is with the Buckeyes, which dominated Tennessee, but we have seen them ebb and flow all season. Jim Knowles is a defensive mastermind, but Dan Lanning’s unit is underrated – plus Oregon’s been preparing for weeks, and it’s more than just a flashy offense. The Ducks have the better quarterback (Will Howard 5 TD, 4 INT in last three games) and the better kicking game in a tight battle. Expected this to hit +3, the key number I want and will buy at -120. Another option: play the live line.
It’s clear that Ohio State heard all the noise after losing to their archrival, Wolverines, in their final game of the season then going out and dominating Tennessee. It’s very difficult to beat a team twice as the Buckeyes nearly won in Eugene earlier in the season. This line may be indicative of Ohio State playing with momentum and a chip on their shoulder after all that transpired at the end of the season.
Told myself I was just going to enjoy this game and not bet it ... told myself I was just going to enjoy this game and not bet it. Then Oregon got to +3. So yeah. The Ducks definitely got hosed by the draw, but this makes no sense. Oh how I hate ... Ohio State.
Was the price impacted in the Rose Bowl toward the Buckeyes as the public digested the blowout result of the first-round romp past Tennessee? Are the masses conveniently forgetting that OSU lost its previous game to Michigan and had some other struggles during the season, including the first Oregon clash? We remain unconvinced that Howard has been an upgrade at QB from Kyle McCord last season. Oregon had a couple of close calls, too, but when watching the Ducks we get the feeling they can hit the accelerator when needed with QB Dillon Gabriel and an attack that can strike quicker than OSU. Any Buckeyes revenge psychology edge probably mitigated a bit by the fact OSU is favored. Play Oregon (Rose Bowl)
The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!
I have to bet this one on principle with Oregon who I can't believe is not favored in this game. They have not lost one game this season and Ohio State, who lost two games one to Oregon and the other to Michigan and I might add they lost to Michigan as 19.5-point favorites. What gives Ohio State the right to be favored against Oregon in this game on a neutral field? Oregon to cover.
The first meeting between Oregon and Ohio State produced 63 points and came down to the final play. I expect another high scoring game in the rematch. The stats from the first meeting show how even it was with both teams racking up over 450 total yards. Oregon averaged 7.6 yards per play, while Ohio State averaged 6.9. Ryan Day coached scared versus Michigan but attacked Tennessee’s defense vertically with his playmakers. He’ll need to be just as aggressive against Oregon because the Ducks will score points. Dillon Gabriel had a lot of success targeting the Ohio State corners in the first matchup and I don’t see that changing this time around. I'd play the over up to 57.5.
It's telling that the Buckeyes are favored on the road in this rematch despite losing the first matchup 32-31 in Eugene. They were felled by eight penalties and two big turnovers, and the clock ran out on a potential game-winning drive. We anticipate Ohio State building on perhaps its most complete effort of the season in a first-round drubbing of Tennessee and advancing to the CFP semifinals.
The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country statistically, allowing only 11.4 points per game and it was on display in the blowout victory over Tennessee on 12/21. While these teams combined for 63 total points in their first matchup, I think both defenses will make adjustments and this game stays in the 20s for each side. I lean Ohio State to win outright but don't have enough confidence to make it an official play. Ohio State 27, Oregon 23.
Ohio State has played one road game all season that involved real travel - and they lost to these very same Ducks. Schedule set up great for them and they did their best work at home. But Ryan Day comes up small in these spots and the pressure mounts and his team has had to play more recently. And did I mention this game wasn't being played in Columbus? Dan Lanning will pull out all the stops. Coaching matters a ton when you reach this point in the season (which helps explain why one of these programs tends to crash out right around this time).