This will be a challenge for Boise to keep pace with Penn State and its potent offense. The Nittany Lions were at times a bit too "cutesy" for OC Andy Kotelnicki, but there is plenty of diversity, with two slashing RBs in Nicholas Singleton and Kayton Allen, plus a great weapon in TE Tyler Warren (92 catches for 1095 yards this season). QB Drew Allar also passed for more than 3000 yards. Of course, RB Ashton Jeanty gives Boise a slashing presence, and the Broncos did play Oregon close on September 7, but it will take more than wearing the throwback uniforms from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl on this same field for the Broncos to hang close. Play Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)

Ashton Jeanty should have been the Heisman Trophy winner. Ashton Jeanty will be the best player in this game. Unfortunately, Boise State is not made entirely of Ashton Jeantys. As great as the Broncos have played, they are nowhere near as deep as Penn State, entering the quarterfinals healthy despite having already played a CFP game. The Nittany Lions have an edge up front; if they can control the line of scrimmage, they can take the ball out of Jeanty’s hands. Should have locked in at -9.5 or -10 on Penn State, which is the right line for this game, but it’s still a play up to -11. This will be close in the first half but open up significantly coming out of the break.

Talk about no respect for Boise State. Sure, I expect Penn State to win but tend to think this is a close slugfest as the Broncos continue to run Ashton Jeanty into the teeth of that excellent PSU defense. Remember, Jeanty tore up Oregon earlier this season and Boise State nearly knocked off the Ducks in a true road game. The Broncos might have the majority of fan support in Glendale. PSU coach James Frankly is an ugly 5-14 career in AP top-15 matchups.

Boise State will be uncomfortable here. It is not enough to be a one dimensional offense against a defense like Penn State, especially when you have a top four draft pick at edge. The only way Boise could have success is throwing in early downs which I don't see happening. Penn State's offense will be able to take advantage of this vulnerable secondary in Boise State. And while Boise's pass rush has been great, this will be the best O-line they face.

Penn State and Boise State are in the college playoff together but they're from two completely different worlds. Penn State had two losses this year and they came against the best, Oregon and Ohio State. The Big Ten is just a better more competitive conference. Boise State's only loss on the year came to Oregon but the rest of their wins are against UNLV twice, Wyoming barely, and Nevada in a struggle. It's the defense that I think is going to be the separator between the two conferences and Penn State has the No. 5 defense in the nation allowing 279 yards and allow only 100 yards per game rushing which is the strength of Boise State and running back Ashton Jeanty. Penn State covers.

Since losing to Ohio State, Penn State has averaged 38 points per game in their last six contests. The offense is working and I'm not sure I trust the Broncos' defense to slow it down all that much. I was willing to give Boise State the benefit of the doubt to play this close, but the Nittany Lions impressed me so much last weekend with that dominant win over SMU that I've changed my mind here. A random fact of note: 13 of the last 14 Fiesta Bowls have seen 51+ points. Expect a fun, high-scoring affair on New Year's Eve (and I'll be there). Penn State 37, Boise State 24.

This line feels a little high to me. Penn State was -8.5 at home over SMU and now -11 over Boise on a neutral field. I have Boise rated as the better team and make the Nittany Lions -8 here. I think Boise's underrated defense line can get pressure on Drew Allar and make this an ugly-kind of game. I'll take the points with the Broncos.