Credit Mother Nature for this pick. Persistent rain and brisk winds could hamper San Jose State's pass-happy offense. It is first in the Mountain West in passing, worst in rushing. Run-minded UNLV can control the clock in the projected conditions and cap the scoring at 60. The weather also could hamper Rebels PK Caden Chittenden, who has accumulated 22 field goals. Taking UNLV at -7.5 is tempting, but the hook makes the Under more appealing.