Now that this jumped higher than the key number of 4 (31-27, etc.), we'll play a little. Our model has Texas State by 3 and that's somewhat where I'm leaning, but Massey ranks Louisiana several spots higher nationally overall and Sagarin has the schools basically even -- so this is simply too high of a home-field tax. UL is 11-0 all-time in the series. It leads the Sun Belt in passing and total defense and has had only four turnovers all season (no fumbles lost).