We’re backing up our money-line sprinkle on SMU with an ATS play by grabbing nearly a full touchdown with what we believe is the club with the better current form going against a Louisville club that has faced two consecutive games against physical opponents.

The red-hot Mustangs have scored 108 combined points in their past two games, blowouts of TCU and Florida State in which they piled up more than 200 rushing yards in each contest. This is a dangerous spot for a Louisville club that is coming off grueling back-to-back contests against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The Cardinals won the former but saw their late rally come up short in a 24-17 loss to the Irish. This is a swing game in a tight ACC race, and we like the current form and value on the underdog Mustangs.

Now that the Mustangs have settled in with Jennings at QB, the offense looks more balanced than ever this season. Also, because of that, the defense has been able to be rested and get after the opposing QB. It's the balance, plus their play at the line of scrimmage that gives them a chance here against Louisville.