Auburn's offense isn't fixed after a QB change, it merely faced a horrific defense last week. I don't expect it'll look as good this week, and Arkansas' best is better than Auburn's.

I like to look at this from a preseason perspective: this would be a 9 point spread. Auburn had a 3 game higher team total, and they are ranked 11 spots higher in the Sportsline model power rankings. And while these teams have had similar starts to the season and coaches who could be on the hot seat, there is still a talent gap. Arkansas "keeping it close" with Oklahoma is boding less impressive, as Ollie Gordon has not looked himself against any opponent. The Sportsline Model makes this an 8 point win for Auburn, back the home team with the momentum of a quarterback change.

Perhaps it's too early to think of bowl season, but Auburn better win this or I'm not sure it gets bowl eligible with that murderous SEC schedule. Hugh Freeze appears to have made the right decision at quarterback in benching former struggling starter Payton Thorne for Hank Brown, a redshirt freshman who originally committed to play for Freeze at Liberty. Brown ranks third in the nation in rating. Another good-looking freshman, wideout Cam Coleman, is likely to play after missing last week. Ditto right tackle Izavion Miller. Tend to think Auburn wins by 3 and was waiting for this to dip under that. The Hogs are 2-4 ATS in their past six and were pummeled at home by the Tigers in 2023.