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Mon, Jan 016:00 pm UTCState Farm Stadium
Liberty
Flames
LIB
Last 5 ATS
W/L13-1
ATS9-5
O/U8-6-0
FINAL SCORE
6
-
45
Oregon
Ducks
OREG
Last 5 ATS
W/L11-2
ATS10-3
O/U5-9-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
13-1
Win /Loss
11-2
9-5
Spread
10-3
8-6-0
Over / Under
5-9-0
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
LIB @ OREG
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MONEYLINE
LIB @ OREG
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OVER / UNDER
LIB @ OREG
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23%
PUBLIC
77%
MONEY
8%
PUBLIC
92%
MONEY
Over67%
PUBLIC
Under33%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadLiberty +18 -105
LOSS
Unit1.0
Bruce's Analysis:

The Flames have tackled Power 5 opposition before, playing four of them last season--Wake Forest, Arkansas, and Virginia Tech, plus in then-Independent BYU, and split the four games, with the two losses tot he ACC reps by one point each. Jamey Chadwell's Flames have lots of offense with dual-threat QB Kaidon Salter and RB Quinton Cooley, both 1000+ yard rushers this season for an offense that scored 42 ppg. Slowing omnipotent Oregon is another matter, but how much some of the Ducks' departing players like QB Bo Nix and RB Bucky Irving actually play is unknown, and not sure of the motivation on the Ducks' side, which reminds a bit of USC in the Cotton Bowl vs. Tulane last season. Play Liberty (Fiesta Bowl)

Pick Made: Jan 01, 8:51 am UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Over / UnderOver 67.5 -115
LOSS
Unit1.0
+240
8-5 in Last 13 NCAAF O/U Picks
+85
2-1 in Last 3 LIB O/U Picks
Mike's Analysis:

The Fiesta Bowl is renowned (or notorious) for its scorefests, with two-thirds of the last dozen games hitting at least 63 points. Brace yourself for another. It matches two of the nation's highest-scoring squads. Liberty's defense couldn't stop the non-Power Five schools on its schedule, having allowed a minimum of 25 points in every league encounter and missing starters who fled to the portal. It will be in duck-and-cover mode against QB Bo Nix, a Heisman finalist who has all of the usual weapons minus one WR at his disposal. The Ducks have reached the 31-point mark in every game. They could extend the streak here in their sleep.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 2:52 am UTC on FanDuel
Over / UnderUnder 67 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+430
13-8 in Last 21 NCAAF Picks
+270
6-3 in Last 9 NCAAF O/U Picks
+480
7-2 in Last 9 OREG O/U Picks
Barrett's Analysis:

The only way that the over hits in this one is if Oregon tops the 60-point mark on its own. Can it happen? Maybe if it is challenged by Liberty. But that’s about as likely as my hairline to suddenly stop receding. The Ducks defense is the best defense that the Flames have faced all season … by far. Oregon will throttle down in this one in the exact same way it did in the blowout win over Colorado earlier this season.

Pick Made: Dec 29, 3:08 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Over / UnderOver 67 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+625
28-20 in Last 48 NCAAF Picks
Eric's Analysis:

Of all the bowl games, this might be the toughest to handicap. Does Oregon care about this game despite QB Bo Nix saying he will play? Does Liberty have the horses, despite a 13-0 season, to compete with the Oregon machine? We know the Flames will be fired up but I can't come up with a way they slow down Nix and the Ducks. A backdoor cover late is a real possibility but the over seems to be the safest play. Oregon 49, Liberty 35.

Pick Made: Dec 26, 9:37 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey

Team Injuries

Liberty Flames
Thursday, Jan 15, 2026
Avatar
RB
Julian Gray
Foot
Avatar
QB
Ethan Vasko
Undisclosed
Avatar
TE
Connie Hewitt II
Undisclosed
Oregon Ducks
Thursday, Jan 15, 2026
Avatar
WR
Evan Stewart
Knee
Avatar
RB
Jordon Davison
Arm
Avatar
RB
Da'Jaun Riggs
Foot
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