Totals this modest in bowl games usually result from two components: (1.) great defenses (2.) not-so-great weather. Well, Troy's D was good for its level, but the Trojans were punched for 42 points by Kansas State in its only matchup with a Power Five foe. Duke's was OK, yet six major contributors have bailed for the transfer portal. Blue Devils QB Grayson Loftus is no Riley Leonard, the standout starter who was injured and is now gone, but he gained experience with starts in the last three games and should be better prepared than before. Trojans TB Kimani Vidal will gain inspiration from possibly become the nation's leading rusher. Oh, the weather will be fine.

The Blue Devils offense hasn’t clicked without Riley Leonard under center, and the Trojans have gone through a coaching change that could make this one ugly. More importantly, though, is the fact that both of these defenses have been solid for the majority of the season. Toss in what could be some chilly weather in Birmingham and you have the perfect recipe for a sloppy game.

Historical trends point to this game being higher scoring than not. Overs have hit in 8 of 9 Troy bowl games lifetime, while 5 of the 6 most recent Duke bowls have also gone over. Troy's last four games of the 2023 regular season / conference championship game flew over this number, in part because the Trojans averaged 40 points per game. Meanwhile, Duke's last four games of 2023 also went over this number. Hopefully these trends won't fail us. Troy 27, Duke 23.