New Mexico State finished the regular season with eight straight outright wins, notably a mega-upset of Auburn, and there was no shame losing to Liberty in the CUSA championship game. Fresno State closed with three consecutive straight-up losses by an average of 15.6 points and head coach Jeff Tedford is on leave to deal with an illness. The Bulldogs neglected to cover in all but one of their closing eight games. Momentum is fluid, especially with the long break before bowls, but the Aggies appear to have the edge. Playing in their home state, they get a semi-home game. The clincher: QB Diego Pavia (shoulder), CUSA’s Player of the Year, has been cleared to play.

First things first here; NMSU QB Diego Pavia will get the go for the Aggies after being KO'd with a shoulder injury in the C-USA title game at Liberty two weeks ago. But the storyline the last two seasons in Las Cruces is how the Ags have responded to vet HC Jerry Kill, who had the Ags flying down the stretch this season with ten straight spread covers prior to the Liberty game, and enter Albuquerque on a 17-4 spread run since mid 2022, coinciding with Pavia emerging at QB. Meanwhile Fresno is minus HC Jeff Tedford (health concerns) for this game and dropped its last three to close the season on a downer. Play NMSU (New Mexico Bowl)

Quite simply, one of these teams is glad to be here and the other seemingly is not. Fresno State stumbled down the stretch after being ranked earlier in the season, going 1-7 ATS down the stretch and losing their final three games outright. Meanwhile, NMSU had their 10 game SU and ATS winning streak broken by Liberty in the Conference USA Championship Game. I think they get their mojo back come Saturday afternoon. New Mexico State 27, Fresno State 20.