The loss of quarterback Preston Stone is a huge one for SMU. Stone ranks 10th in the country in passing touchdowns (28) and 15th in passing efficiency (161.3). That kind of production isn't easily replaced. Meanwhile Tulane's only loss this season came against Ole Miss, a game quarterback Michael Pratt missed. The Green Wave are playing for a New Year's Six bowl game, so I expect their best performance.

The injury to SMU QB Preston Stone is a bigger deal to me than the line in the game suggests. It's not that he's a world beater, it's that SMU is now relying on an inexperienced freshman QB in the biggest game its played all season. Take the talented, more experienced Green Wave.

Tulane lost to Ole Miss in the second game of the season and that’s it. 11-1 with 10 straight wins and the only games they didn’t cover the spread besides Ole Miss were six games laying double-digit spreads. SMU QB Preston Stone broke his fibula last week. Backup Kevin Jennings gets his chance to shine behind SMU’s high-scoring offense, but Tulane has a defense that does the same thing every week allowing 18 ppg and 328 ypg. Lots of rain is expected on Saturday. A first-time starter facing a great defense, and rain has me taking Tulane money-line.

Blend the two premier defenses in the AAC and a QB injury. Stir in projected thunderstorms and stiff winds. These are the ingredients for an Under. The broken leg that has taken out QB Preston Stone means SMU will be inclined to try running the ball. The task could be futile, given the Green Wave's No. 6 rank for ground yards allowed. Tulane has yielded the 18th fewest points in FBS. Impressive, but the Mustangs rank five spots higher. Both offenses can score, to be sure, but will be pressed with stout defenses and possibly nasty weather working against them.

Yes, we're dealing with a backup QB situation for SMU but the kid has talent and (most importantly) snaps under his belt. He'll find soft spots in the Tulane secondary with the pass and have success moving the football. Tulane is very balanced offensively and while SMU boasts a decent run defense, good luck, the Wave can score when needed. Should be a fun back and forth affair, sit back and enjoy every TD scored.

Sometimes it's smart to play football games early in the week and sometimes it isn't. I now very much wish I had played Tulane this morning because this has shot up with SMU ruling excellent QB Preston Stone out for the season due to a leg injury suffered on Saturday. I saw him leave but wasn't sure if it was season-ending so chose to wait. Cost about 60 cents. Also note this is a true home game for the Green Wave even though it's the AAC title game.