Michigan has won and covered the last three meetings but the spreads were half what it is today. They’ve stayed Under the total in four of the last five meetings but none of the numbers were within 8-points of today’s low total. Iowa has won four straight during their 10 win season and they’ve stayed Under in their last seven games. But they didn’t have to play undefeated Michigan who has gone 6-1-1 to the Over in their last eight games. Michigan has a chip on their shoulder with the world against them. The offense attempted only 51 passes without Jim Harbaugh the last three games. Iowa does not dictate the pace here, Over is the top play.

I hope there is a letdown with Michigan. They won the big game over Ohio State and they get their coach, Jim Harbaugh back on the sideline. Iowa has an outstanding defense, allowing 14 or less in seven straight games.

Michigan has absolutely no motivation to run up the score in this game. There's nothing for it to prove, so I fully expect that once the Wolverines gain control, they'll go ultra-conservative and bleed clock. And if somehow Iowa pulls off a shocking upset, it'll have to be a 6-3 kind of game.

The Hawkeyes hitting the “under” has been a running joke since oddsmakers can’t make it low enough. It has hit seven straight times and a total of 10 times this season. However, this is the time that things change. Why? Because Michigan’s offense is about to go off. I don’t care how good a defense is … slowing down running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards takes top-tier athletes, not just top-tier schemes. The Wolverines will hit the 30-point mark and Iowa is good for at least a few field goals.