I think the Ducks have had this game circled since Oregon State upset them last season to knock them out of the Pac-12 Championship Game. Oregon also has a defense to slow the Beavers' rushing attack, ranking 10th in the country (96.2 rushing yards allowed per game). Finally, Ducks quarterback Bo Nix could use a big performance to add to his case to win the Heisman Trophy. I don't expect Oregon to let off the gas. Ducks cover.

I regret not getting this pick posted when the line was 14, but I'm still comfortable here. Oregon has blown the doors off teams it has a superior advantage over, and struggled to pull away from teams that can match its physicality. Oregon State has one of the best offensive lines in the country and should be able to stick around.

Dan Lanning called this game "our Super Bowl," and the Ducks are out for revenge after last year's loss in Corvallis that knocked them out of the PAC-12 CG. I still think Oregon will win, but such a large spread feels disrespectful to the Beavers. Their three losses were by a combined 8 points. OSU has an elite rushing attack, ranking #2 nationally in success rate and #10 in plays of 10+ yards. They're led by Damien Martinez' 6.3 yards/carry and an O-line that PFF rates #1 in run-blocking grade. The spread should be closer to 10, and the market agrees. The tickets are split, but 91% of the handle is on OSU.