The top two offenses in their league guarantee a high total, especially when one team (North Texas State, in this case) carved out ridiculous scores early in the year. But let's not overlook the impact of a stingy defense. SMU's yields a fraction under 16 ppg. The last two encounters in the series drew similar totals, and way-way-Unders resulted in both. Scoring in Mean Green games has come back down to earth, producing four Unders in the past five. The total opened even higher than this number, yet it remains in play even with the slight drop.

Now I'm seeing 66s and a 65.5 so guess we gotta go on this number before signing off. I'm an Under guy but normally would not play this ... except SMU is expected to be without its excellent QB Preston Stone ("I'm Preston Stone, and here's the news at 11"; most news anchorman name ever other than Ron Burgundy of course), and its top WR is done for the year. Both of UNT's top WRs are in question.

Rhett Lashlee's Mustangs have taken on real bully tendencies this season...woe to the team that can't slow down Preston Stone and this sometimes-runaway offense. But not everyone has been rolling over for the Ponies, and Rice put a real scare into SMU last week. The Mean Green have been covering a lot of numbers lately (4-0-1 last five), pushed top American contenders like last Saturday's UTSA down to the wire the past three weeks, transfer QB Chandler Rogers has flourished away from ULM, now on 21 TD passes with just 3 picks this season. The Mean Green's last two games have also cleared 65 points. Play UNT-SMU Over

This is a big slug of points to be giving a UNT side that if nothing else has been very competitive against the top tier of the American, recently pushing Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA into the last minutes. Transfer QB Chandler Rogers is flourishing away from ULM and on 21 TD passes (also just 3 picks). SMU is dangerous but the Mustangs have done their most eye-opening damage vs. bad teams...the Mean Green are anything but. SMU's close call vs. Rice (without QB JT Daniels for much of the game) last week suggest this one likely won't be a runaway. Play North Texas

North Texas is 1-4 in conference play. However, despite their 3-6 record, the Mean Green have been very competitive. They’re 3-1 ATS on the road this season and have covered their last five games, depending on what number you got for the UTSA game. SMU’s Preston Stone is questionable, and the Mean Green are 6-0 ATS since 2021 as double-digit underdogs.

SMU has emerged as my top-rated team in the American Athletic Conference and I expect the Mustangs to win, but this is a lot of points for a group that's a little bit banged up against a North Texas team that has been frisky in Year 1 under Eric Morris. SMU starting QB Preston Stone could miss the game as he's remained in concussion protocol and second-leading receiver Jordan Kerley was just ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Throw in North Texas' 4-1-1 ATS record as an underdog and I like taking the Mean Green and the points.