Coastal Carolina has a significant rest advantage in this matchup. However, they are coming off a disappointing 30-17 loss despite outgaining GA State by 14 yards and being 5-point favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles will be playing their third game in 14 days and fifth game in 28 days, which is not an ideal schedule. Grayson McCall is a phenomenal QB who can put up points against any defense. The line between the two teams is inflated, as they have similar playing styles. I like the road dog in what should be a tight game.

Models say Coastal should be listed in the +105 to +115 range, giving us a 16.4% edge. It's worth a sprinkle. More analysis is included under my ATS pick for this game.

Models project Coastal to lose by less than a field goal, giving us value on this number. It's a buy-low/sell-high spot with the market naturally high on GA Southern after a 40-3 blowout vs. Ball State and low on Coastal after its nationally-televised 30-17 home loss to GA State. The Eagles' problem is they haven't been able to capitalize on scoring opportunities, averaging 3.9 points per trip inside the 40. Meanwhile, Coastal is one of the best at limiting opponents in this area, holding them to 2.8 points per chance. Under new OC Tim Beck, Coastal doesn't throw the ball as much, but the matchup still bodes well for Grayson McCall -- Southern's defense ranks #127 in success rate against the pass.