UMass' dreadful defense got well last week, allowing 19 points to Eastern Michigan, but the offense could only muster two fewer points. New Mexico's attack was toothless in both of its encounters; the Lobos managed 17 and 10 points. The offensive game plans might need altering if storms that could bring stiff winds engulfs the stadium. (The forecast says they will.) Two of the top division's weakest teams seem unlikely to engage in a shootout under such conditions.

UMass looked good offensively before QB Taisun Phommachanh got hurt and has looked impotent since. I don't think New Mexico is anything special, but it's hard to trust this UMass team as a favorite against anybody right now.