This spread is showing a lot of respect for the rivalry and a setting where Tennessee has not won since 2003, but not enough respect for the better team on both sides of the ball. The Vols defense is a pressure and havoc defense and it will be looking to force Graham Mertz into third-and-long situations where it will have heavy advantage And while much is made of Joe Milton's arm I'm impressed by the overlooked and under-discussed Tennessee ground game. I'm expecting a good game, but it's one where the better team deserves to be favored by 7 or more.

Tennessee *should be* the much better team here and while I believe that they are, the sharper play is likely riding the under instead of the spread. The Vols might get to 30, I'm not sure the Gators do. Both teams haven't really looked in sync offensively and some of that will likely carry into Saturday. Look for a ton of groundwork and a running clock. Take the under.

Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is still a liability … last week notwithstanding. The bigger concern here is a Tennessee team that was lethargic in the win over Austin Peay – and that might be a little too complementary toward the Volunteers. This will be a defensively-driven game which won’t come anywhere close to the point total.