As I said last week when picking Wyoming, I expect Texas Tech to have a good season. But that season opener in Laramie was tricky for the Red Raiders. This week, they're back in Lubbock, where weird things happen on Saturday nights during football season. Last week's loss will have Tech even more focused for this matchup against a Ducks team that faces a tough road test for the first time this season. Red Raiders coach Joe McGuire likes to roll the dice on fourth down, which could lead to a lot of volatility. So instead of taking Tech to cover, I'll sprinkle a little on the money line.

Okay, we get that Dan Lanning has a bit of a mean streak after his Ducks put 81 on Portland State last week. But that’s mostly a warning to Big Sky foes; away from Eugene, maybe not, especially against legit FBS-level opposition, of which Texas Tech still qualifies even after last week’s shock loss at Wyoming. But the Red Raiders don’t have to worry about playing at 7,200 feet this week, and this ought to be a special occasion for QB Tyler Shough, who was taking snaps for the Webfoots a few years ago as the effective star of their 2020 pandemic season Pac-12 title and Fiesta Bowl appearance.

Oregon dropped 81 points last week against Portland State. Texas Tech lost to unranked Wyoming in double overtime. So why is the line less than a touchdown in Lubbock this week? What are the oddsmakers trying to tell us? The Red Raiders have won 23 straight home openers, were 4-2 ATS as an underdog last season, and 5-2 ATS at home in 2022. Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough is a former Oregon QB so there's a revenge angle of sorts there. I expect this game to be a barnburner, and while I'd prefer buying this line to 7.5 or more, I'll roll with Tech to keep this one VERY close, if not pull the surprising upset.

Are you serious? A legit national championship contender that could have broken the 100-point mark last week if it wanted to is only a 6.5-point favorite over a team that just lost to Wyoming? That makes precisely zero sense. The Red Raiders collapse in Laramie was specifically because their defense went to sleep in the second half, which doesn’t bode well against a Ducks team that can score at will. Ducks’ quarterback Bo Nix will go off, and Oregon will leave Lubbock with a 17-20-point win.