This seems like a low number for a college football game, but it's still WAY too high. The Wolf Pack suffered a ton of attrition, but still have Toa Taua toting the rock. Translation ... Nevada will drain the clock, and it's hard to imagine the Aggies having much success on offense at all. Nevada might have to get to 40 points on its own for the Over to hit, and that doesn't seem likely.

I don't think people realize quite yet how bad Nevada could prove to be in 2022. This line certainly hasn't picked up on it. While the Wolf Pack were excellent last season, it lost QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs. Coach Jay Norvell left to take the Colorado State job, and took a number of Nevada's most important players with him. The cupboard in Reno has been left bare, and while New Mexico State's routinely been one of the worst teams in the country, new coach Jerry Kill will have them ready for the season-opener.

The Wolf Pack have a new coach in Ken Wilson, who takes over a solid roster but still will endure some growing pains in Year 1 after losing a lot of experience. However, with RB Toa Taua, OL Aaron Frost and DL Dom Peterson back in the fold, those are three excellent foundational pieces with which to work. I still have some questions about New Mexico State's offense, which only returns four starters and is breaking in a new QB as well.

New Mexico State has new coach in Jerry Kill, a new QB, and 10 returning starters from a 2-win 2021 squad. Are they turning the corner as they head to C-USA next year, or are they the same team with one winning season in the last 19 years? Ratings show they’re the fourth-worst squad. But Las Vegas books posted Nevada -14.5 early on and sharps took it often. There's no more air raid offense for Nevada. Coach Ken Wilson will be running the ball more with only two offensive starters returning. There's a new Wolfpack QB and a totally overhauled receiving corps, but still better talent overall. I took Nevada laying the shorter price.