Clear, windy weather awaits these Christmas Day combatants. Any gusts should not impact Georgia State’s offense, the No. 8 rushing unit in the FBS taking aim at a so-so rush defense. Eight of 12 Ball State games hurdled this number. While just half of the Panthers’ did, they alone averaged 35.7 points per game over the last three contests. GSU’s previous two bowl games ended with 55 and 60 points scored.

Ball State's rush defense ranks 77th nationally in success rate against the run and 89th in defensive EPA against the run. Georgia State runs the ball 62.3% of the time on offense (8th). The Panthers rank 38th nationally in yards per carry at 4.89, 34th in success rate rushing the ball and 20th in rushing EPA. In a game that will come down to which defense gets more stops, I trust Georgia State a lot more than I do Ball State. Plus, while Miami (OH) finally picked up a win for the conference against North Texas, the bowl season has not been kind to MAC teams.