History would have you pick Penn State in this spot, but despite a lack of trust in Jim Harbaugh, Michigan enters this game as the more well-rounded team. The Wolverines are better up front on both sides of the ball, run better offensively and do a good job defensively keeping opponents out of the end zone even if they do move the ball near the red zone. If Michigan can limit explosive plays in a tough road environment, it should be able to come away with a win in a game that will likely be decided by 3-4 points.

The Nittany Lions lost three straight games before getting a road win at Maryland last week. That’s not enough for me to think that they can hang with a Michigan team that still controls its own destiny not only in the Big Ten East, but the College Football Playoff race. Cade McNamara is a bit banged up, but that won’t matter. The Wolverines will pound the rock and, at the very least win by a touchdown.

Penn State owns a 6-3 record and is looking to land a spot in a big bowl game. Michigan, meanwhile, is 8-1 and has hopes of competing for the national title. Both teams rank in the top 15 defensively. The Wolverines rank 95th in pace and run the ball 64 percent of the time.

While it's somewhat scary to trust Michigan as a road favorite against Penn State, it's even scarier to trust this Penn State offense. Penn State hasn't been able to run the ball against anybody, and that's going to ruin its ability to slow down an excellent Michigan pass rush. Meanwhile, the Wolverines offense has been as well-balanced as any Michigan offense I can remember under Jim Harbaugh. It won't be pretty, but the Wolverines will leave State College with the win.