Understandably, a matchup between Sam Howell and Kenny Pickett, potentially the first two QBs taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, has a monster total. However, the Heels' offense is really based on the running game first and foremost, which includes Howell. The Tar Heels run the ball 40.6 times per game, compared to 30.3 pass attempts per game. Pitt is excellent against the run. While that Panthers defense hasn't been great in the past two games, it was stellar the four prior to that. Long story short: I don't think the Heels top 30 points and even if Pitt scores 42 we win on this total. The SportsLine Projection Model has a final score of 40-30. Works for me.

These games are always highly entertaining. I've gone to two of these Pitt-UNC night games, and they always end in a barnburner. That's why I don't understand the point spread here. To me, this should be a pick 'em game, as we're starting to see a much more dynamic UNC offense. Three points make more sense than 6.5. I'm on the Heels.