These are two of the top defenses in the nation in relative total defense and relative scoring defense. It doesn't seem likely that either team will get much above 20, if they get there at all. That makes the under sound good (I recommend that too), but it also says the game is likely close. I think the Cowboys could win outright, but I'll take the points here.

It’s not often a top 10 team gets spotted a touchdown by an unranked foe. Four narrow wins by the unbeaten Cowboys have raised doubt among bettors, yet three straight-up victories by Iowa State (4-2) came against Northern Iowa, winless UNLV and almost-winless Kansas. Oklahoma State has dominated the series, taking 10 of the last 12 meetings. Some of the public was poised to pounce on the Cyclones, figuring on a line closer to a field goal, and was surprised it came up this large.

The Cowboys are ranked No. 8 in the country for a reason. They are 6-0 and have looked dominant over their last three games. They haven't allowed more than 24 points in any game this season. The Cyclones are a middle-of-the-pack team. They’ve handled their business against bad teams but they can’t seem to beat a good team. The Cowboys are live to win outright. This spread is way too high.

Oklahoma State has been phenomenal as an underdog since 2016, going 13-3 ATS with 10 outright wins. Furthermore, since the 2009 season, we've seen teams ranked in the top 10 as underdogs to unranked teams eight times, and the ranked team has covered seven of them. Those trends, Oklahoma State's defense, and Iowa State's lack of an explosive offense all make me believe the Cowboys stay within a touchdown at a minimum.

These teams play a very similar brand of football -- rely on defense, force turnovers and run the ball. The world already knows about Cyclones star running back Breece Hall, but Cowboys running back Jaylen Warren is third in the Big 12 in rushing at 117.5 yards per game. This game has all of the makings of an old-school slugfest. A full touchdown spread seems a bit aggressive here.

Expect a wild one here between Iowa State and Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are probably the most underdiscussed undefeated team in college football. Because I can't particularly trust any QB in this game, I will look toward the running game and the defensive units. Both are equal in that regard, so I see a far tighter game than this seven-point number indicates.