There's far too much value on West Virginia here. Baylor has been the better team this season and has the much better record, but Baylor is not a scary team. The Mountaineers put up a bunch of yards in last week's loss to Texas Tech, but fell short in the red zone. If they clean that up, they leave Waco with a win on Saturday.

I was on the fence for this Big 12 matchup but now that it has fallen under 3 let's jump on Baylor at home, where it already owns a quality win over Iowa State. WVU enters on a two-game losing streak overall and is 0-2 on the road. Baylor is one of four Power 5 teams ranked Top 25 nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense. West Virginia is a very good defensive team but can't run the ball much. Thus, the Mountaineers likely will have to throw to win and BU ranks 11th nationally with only 155.6 passing yards allowed per game -- and has picked off seven passes. Bears by a field goal.